Newsletter – 9th October 2017

Morning Bulletin

Friday

  • Sterling was under pressure once again Friday morning as pressure continues to grow on UK PM Theresa May. Despite all the whispers and plotting from some Tory MP’s the PM insists she has the full support of her cabinet.
  • UK Halifax HPI m/m +0.8% (0.0% Exp)
  • Italian Retail Sales m/m -0.3% (0.2% Exp)
  • There was a raft of jobs data out of North America Friday afternoon and it was slightly mixed.
  • The US components, when taking Hurricanes Irma and Harvey into consideration were pretty encouraging, with Average Hourly Earnings m/m up +0.5% (+0.3% Exp) and the overall Unemployment Rate dropping to 4.2% (4.4% Exp).
  • The key ‘Non-Farm Employment’ figure however showed the economy lost some 33,000 jobs during September against an expected gain of 82,000. This loss of jobs was attributed to the recent impact of the aforementioned Hurricanes and as such didn’t prevent the Dollar rallying in FX space following the positive wages and unemployment rate figures.
  • The Canadian jobs data was very similar in that the overall Unemployment Rate dropped to 6.2% (6.3% Exp), whilst the number of those employment rose by just 10,000 falling short of the expected 13,900.
  • Striking a similar tone Friday afternoon both US Fed Member’s Kaplan and Bostic suggested they were ‘open-minded’ with regards to hiking US interest rates in December.
  • The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model has cut Q3 US growth to+2.5% against a previous +2.8%.
Over The Weekend

  • The Turkish Lira has been hammered in FX space this morning as both Turkey and the United States have issued similar statements suspending Visa services for citizens planning to visit the other country.
  • Spanish PM Rajoy has suggested he would consider suspending Catalonia’s autonomous status to prevent the region pushing for independence.
  • UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson has told his party to get behind PM Theresa May. In a somewhat conveniently leaked Whatsapp message Boris told his colleagues to ‘talk about nothing but policies’.
  • China Caixin Services PMI 50.6 (53.1 Exp)
  • German Industrial Production m/m 2.6% (0.9% Exp)
Today

  • Could be a very quiet day in prospect with next to no data set for release.
  • Please note today is a US (Columbus Day) and Canadian (Thanksgiving) Bank Holiday.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1180 +0.41
GBP/USD 1.3111 +0.36
EUR/USD 1.1728 -0.04
AUD/USD 0.7755 -0.23

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.30 EUR Sentix Investor Confidence 28.6 28.2
ALL DAY EUR Eurogroup Meetings