Newsletter – 9th November 2017

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • We had next to no key economic data released during yesterday’s trading. Sterling was the biggest faller, having had a solid three days prior to this.
  • The Pound was weighed down by the commencement of the next round of Brexit talks due to start Thursday, and perhaps more pressing yet more political upheaval within the Tory party. This time with those revelations that Cabinet Minister Priti Patel had been holding secret meetings in Israel, including one with Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu.
  • The Pound closed the day down around -0.5% against the US Dollar (Approx 1.3110) and the Euro (Approx 1.1305), and lost even further against the Aussie and Kiwi Dollars.
  • Speaking yesterday morning US Fed Member Harker said he believed the Fed was on course to hike rates once more in their December meeting, but said he would want to see progress in inflation before any further hikes in 2018.
  • Canadian Building Permits m/m 3.8% (0.7% Exp).
  • Late in the afternoon, the European Parliament’s negotiator Guy Verhofstadt stated ‘We don’t recognize reports suggesting that a deal on citizens’ rights is almost finalised. There are still major issues that have to be resolved’.
  • According to Credit Ratings Agency Moody’s global economic growth is set to continue through 2018, with global GDP growth of 3.2%. They also forecast growth of 3.1% in 2019.
Overnight

  • The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept interest rates on hold at 1.75% as expected.
  • The Kiwi Dollar rallied in FX space as the accompanying RBNZ statement was very much hawkish in nature, with the central bank bringing forward their next expected rate increase to Q2 2019 from Q3 2019. They also pointed to improving global economic growth, and suggested that if sustained, the current easing of NZD exchange rate could lead to increasing inflation and promote more balanced growth.
  • Unsurprisinlgy yesterday evening Priti Patel was forced to resign from her role in Theresa May’s Cabinet. That is the second minister Mrs May has lost in as many weeks.
  • According to the FT, the European Union has issued an informal 2-3 weeks deadline to the UK for the Brexit Bill offer.
  • Japan Core Machinery Orders m/m -8.1% (-1.8% Exp)
  • Japan Current Account 1.84Tn (2.05Tn Exp)
  • China CPI y/y 1.9% (1.8% Exp)
  • China PPI y/y 6.9% (6.6% Exp)
  • German Trade Balance 21.8Bn (21.0Bn Exp)
Today
  • Much like the week so far we have a distinct lack of data set for release today.
  • US Unemployment Claims is the key print, due at 1.30pm.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1312 +0.02
GBP/USD 1.3120 +0.06
EUR/USD 1.1594 0.00
AUD/USD 0.7677 +0.02

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
10.00 EUR EU Economic Forecasts
13.00 GBP NIESR GDP Estimate 0.4%
13.30 CAD NHPI m/m 0.2% 0.1%
13.30 USD Unemployment Claims 232K 229K
15.00 USD Final Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.3% 0.3%
16.30 CHF Swiss SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks