Newsletter – 9th March 2018

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • The European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy meeting was the focus of yesterday’s trading, and as expected they voted to keep their benchmark interest rate on hold at 0.00%. It was the accompanying statement and press conference that garnered the most attention, the key takeaways included:
    • ECB to hold interest rates at current levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of the net asset purchases.
    • On the subject of asset purchases, the ECB’s bond buying program will continue to run at €30billion a month until the end of September or beyond if necessary.
    • President Draghi said growth in the Euro Area will expand in the near term at a faster pace than expected.
    • Inflation still remains subdued with no convincing signs of a sustained upward trend.
  • The Euro was briefly lifted in FX space following the removal of the sentence that the ECB ‘would increase its asset purchase purchases should the economic outlook deteriorate’. This was seen as a sign that the ECB could be looking to normalise policy further down the line, however there were some other dovish elements to the statement that caused the Euro to retreat.
  • Speaking during his visit to Ireland yesterday, European Council President Donald Tusk reaffirmed that an explicit deal on the Irish Border issue had to be agreed before Brexit talks could move on to trade.
  • Eleven countries signed off on the revamped Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal yesterday. Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam have created agreement on a market that covers half a billion people and 13.5% of the global economy.
Overnight

  • US President Trump has signed off his controversial metal tariffs overnight. The tariffs will take effect in 15 days and will see a 10% levy on steel imports and 25% on aluminium. Canada and Mexico will be exempt from the tariffs.
  • China CPI y/y 2.9% (2.5% Exp)
  • China PPI y/y 3.7% (3.8% Exp)
  • Overnight the Bank of Japan opted to keep interest rates on hold at -0.10% as expected, with no change to existing monetary policy.
  • German Industrial Production m/m -0.1% (0.6% Exp)
  • German Trade Balance 21.3Bn (21.1Bn Exp)
Today
  • Key UK data will watched closely this morning, with a raft of figures including Manufacturing Production and Goods Trade Balance due at 9.30am.
  • This afternoon we have key jobs data out of the United States and Canada at 1.30pm. The headline figure will be US Non-Farm Employment with an expected print of 201,000.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1222 +0.04
GBP/USD 1.3803 -0.03
EUR/USD 1.2299 -0.10
AUD/USD 0.7802 +0.21

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.30 GBP Manufacturing Production m/m 0.2% 0.3%
09.30 GBP Goods Trade Balance -12.0Bn -13.6Bn
TBC GBP NIESR GDP Estimate 0.5%
13.30 CAD Employment Change 21.8K -88.0K
13.30 CAD Unemployment Rate 5.9% 5.9%
13.30 USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.2% 0.3%
13.30 USD Non-Farm Employment Change 201K 200K
13.30 USD Unemployment Rate 4.0% 4.1%
15.00 USD Final Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.6% 0.7%