Newsletter – 9th January 2019

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • UK House prices rose significantly more than expected in December according to the latest Halifax figures. Prices rose 2.2% in December against an expected rise of just 0.5%. That more than erased the -1.2% fall that was recorded in November and meant on an annual basis House prices rose 1.3% in the three months to December, again smashing the 0.4% forecasted growth.
  • Despite the official line from the PM’s office saying there are absolutely no plans to seek to extend Article 50, this time the Telegraph have reported British Officials have been putting feelers out and discussing the possibility with EU representatives.
  • The UK Government confirmed that MP’s would have a meaningful vote on Theresa May’s Brexit deal on Tuesday 15th January. The spokesman also confirmed that the PM was continuing to seek assurances from the EU that neither side wish to use the backstop.
  • In another swipe at the Federal Reserve, tweeting yesterday afternoon President Trump said that US economic numbers were looking really good but couldn’t resist suggesting how much better they could have been had interest rates remained around a Zero rate rather than being raised so rapidly.
  • Canadian Trade Balance -2.1Bn as expected.
  • US JOLTS Job Openings 6.89M (7.07M Exp).
  • US Consumer Credit m/m 22.1Bn (17.3Bn Exp).
Overnight

  • In a scheduled televised speech from the Oval office, US President Trump demanded that congress give him the $5.7Billion to build his US-Mexico border wall, however he did stop short of declaring a national emergency in a bid to secure those funds which had been touted as a potential option. In an attempt to rally public support the President said illegal immigrants and drugs freely flowing across the Southern borders into the US posed a serious threat to American safety.
  • In a sign that talks are potentially advancing in the right direction, US and Chinese negotiators have agreed to extend talks until Wednesday in a bid to the current trade war.
  • According to the World Bank Global growth is set to slow to 2.9% in 2019, down from 3.0% in 2018. They cited the escalation of trade wars as the main cause of the slowdown.
  • Japan Average Cash Earnings y/y 2.0% (1.3% Exp)
  • Australia Building Approvals m/m -9.1% (-0.3% Exp)
  • German Trade Balance 19.0Bn (17.9Bn Exp)
Today
  • The Bank of Canada will be closely watched this afternoon with their rate decision and accompanying statement due at 3pm, with the press conference shortly after.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1138 +0.23
GBP/USD 1.2762 +0.39
EUR/USD 1.1457 +0.15
AUD/USD 0.7155 +0.21

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
10.00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate 8.1% 8.1%
13.15 CAD Housing Starts 207K 216K
14.00 USD Fed Member Evans Speaks
15.00 CAD BOC Rate Statement
15.00 CAD Overnight Rate 1.75% 1.75%
15.15 CAD BOC Press Conference
15.30 GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
19.00 USD Fed FOMC Meeting Minutes