Newsletter – 9th January 2017

Morning Bulletin


  • GBP/EUR finally broke out of it’s recently tight trading range yesterday afternoon. Having been largely boxed inbetween the 1.1200 and 1.1300 handles since the 20th December, it was the Pound that seized the initiative breaking higher and briefly trading at a day’s high of 1.1343 before closing just shy of that mark.
  • There was no key economic data yesterday, just a few lower impact prints:
    • UK Halifax HPI m/m -0.6% (+0.2% Exp)
    • Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence 32.9 (31.5 Exp)
    • Eurozone Retail Sales m/m 1.5% (1.4% Exp)
  • Another US Fed Member has played down the need for three rate hikes in 2018. Speaking yesterday afternoon Fed Member Raphael Bostic said he still remained on board with the central banks ‘slow removal’ of monetary policy accommodation in the face of solid domestic growth, but cautioned he did not feel that necessarily meant three or four hikes are required.
  • UK PM Theresa May carried out her Cabinet reshuffle yesterday but there were no movements in the perceived top jobs (i.e. The Chancellor, Foreign Secretary). Justine Greening was one notable resignation, with the now former Education Secretary reportedly turning down a move to Work and Pensions Secretary.
  • According to Credit Ratings agency Fitch the global ratings outlooks are the most positive they have been since the financial crisis. They did however point to credit quality as a potential issue as ultra-supportive monetary policy is phased out.
  • EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has urged the remaining 27 EU member states to contribute more money into the continents joint budget to fill the ‘black hole’ left behind when the UK leaves. Mr Juncker said that equated to the cash equivalent of just ‘one cup of coffee a day’ for the European taxpayer.

  • Australian Building Approvals m/m 11.7% (-0.9% Exp)
  • UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y +0.6% as expected
  • Japan Consumer Confidence 44.7 (45.1 Exp)
  • German Industrial Production m/m 3.4% (1.9% Exp)
  • According to a IHS-Markit survey staff shortages are intensifying across the UK, with pay growth increasing for those moving jobs.
  • No key data set for release today. Overall sparse data calendar.


Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1330 -0.03
GBP/USD 1.3526 -0.28
EUR/USD 1.1937 -0.25
AUD/USD 0.7819 -0.25


Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.00 EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate 11.0% 11.1%
10.00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate 8.7% 8.8%
11.00 USD NFIB Small Business Index 108.4 107.5
13.15 CAD Housing Starts 240K 252K
15.00 USD JOLTS Job Openings 6.05M 6.00M