Newsletter – 9 February 2017

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • Largely neutral day for Sterling in yesterday’s trading, closing the day on parity against the majority its counterparts. Best performance was against the US Dollar, closing the day at1.2530 (+0.2%).
  • Following BOE member Forbes hawkish commentary Tuesday some might have been hoping for more of the same from BOE member Cunliffe yesterday to see another solid Sterling rally. That however failed to come to fruition as Cunliffe’s tone was more muted, instead focusing on an expected weakness in British business investment in the near term.
  • Indian Central Bank voted 6-0 in favour of keeping their benchmark interest rate at 6.25%.
  • Having plummeted early yesterday, The Euro staged a fight back to close the day’s trading around parity against its major counterparts.
  • Part of the recent underlying Euro weakness can of course be attributed to the French Presidential elections, however yesterday stories surrounding Greece began to surface yet again. It was reported yesterday that the IMF and Eurozone governments clashed once again on how best to handle Greece’s bailout.
Overnight

  • Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept Official Cash Rate at 1.75% as expected. Key points from the accompanying RBNZ statement and press conference:
    • Strong employment growth and economy growing well
    • Inflation will continue towards the mid-point of the band
    • RBNZ has neutral bias; odds of rate increase or decrease are evenly balanced
    • RBNZ’s McDermott says they are uncomfortable with level of NZ Dollar
  • Unsurprisingly then the New Zealand Dollar is on the back-foot in FX space this morning.
  • UK House of Commons overwhelmingly backed Theresa May to begin Britain’s divorce proceedings from the EU. The ‘Brexit Bill’ sailed through with 494 in favour and 122 opposed.
Today
  • Unfortunately we don’t have a great deal in the way of economic data today, however there are a number of central bankers chalked up to speak. Having said that most of the movement in FX space this week has been driven by comments from Bank of England and US Federal Reserve members. One key piece of data to look for is US Unemployment Claims at 1.30pm.

 

MAJOR CURRENCY PAIRS
Current at time of distribution

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1740 +0.17
GBP/USD 1.2557 +0.17
EUR/USD 1.0694 -0.03
AUD/USD 0.7627 -0.23

 

ECONOMIC CALENDAR
Current at time of distribution
Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.00 AUD RBA Governor Lowe Speaks
10.00 GBP UK Trade Secretary Fox Speaks
13.30 CAD NHPI m/m 0.3% 0.2%
13.30 USD Unemployment Claims 249K 246K
14.10 USD US Fed Member Bullard Speaks
15.00 USD Wholesale Inventories m/m 1.0% 1.0%
16.35 CAD Gov Council Member Schembri Speaks
18.10 USD FOMC Member Evans Speaks
18.30 GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks