Newsletter – 8th November 2018

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • Unsurprisingly the US Mid-term results dominated headlines across the globe yesterday as they were essentially seen as a referendum on President Trump’s two years in office so far. As widely expected the opposition Democrat party took back control of the House of Representatives whilst Trump’s Republicans kept control of the Senate. Despite Trump’s typical attempts to dress the result up, it will undoubtedly make life far more difficult for the President, with the Democrats now effectively able to block his legislative plans (E.g. Mexican Border Wall) and the potential for them to launch investigations into the President’s business affairs.
  • Off the back of the results the US Dollar suffered losses in FX space over the course of the day as markets and investors started to factor in the uncertainty ahead, not least the potential for the Democrats stifling the President’s attempts to introduce more fiscal measures (E.g. Tax Cuts) which could have boosted economic growth.
  • By the close of play GBP/USD closed the day up +0.43% at 1.3154.
  • EUR/USD closed the day up +0.36% at 1.1466.
  • The New Zealand Dollar was one of the strongest performers in FX markets yesterday, spurred on by the impressive economic data released earlier in the morning and ahead of the RBNZ monetary policy meeting in the night ahead.
  • The Pound, which had enjoyed a solid day’s trading itself, still closed the day down -0.31% against the NZ Dollar at 1.9368.
  • Eurozone Retail Sales m/m 0.0% (0.1% Exp)
  • Canadian IVEY PMI 61.8 (50.9 Exp)
Overnight

  • The Kiwi Dollar rallied aggressively last night following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s monetary policy meeting. The RBNZ left rates unchanged at 1.75% as expected, but crucially dropped the phrase that the next move on rates could be ‘up or down’ from their statement.
  • Reports overnight that Theresa May has summoned her Cabinet to meet again today to read the final Brexit agreement, with the potential for it to be signed off by the end of the week if given the nod.
  • China Trade Balance 234Bn (209Bn Exp)
  • Japan Current Account 1.33Tn (1.36Tn Exp)
  • German Trade Balance 17.6Bn (18.2Bn Exp)
Today
  • Very little in the way of key data during UK trading hours.
  • Later this evening the US Federal Reserve will be firmly in focus with their rate decision and accompanying policy statement due at 7pm.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1488 0.00
GBP/USD 1.3120 -0.03
EUR/USD 1.1422 -0.02
AUD/USD 0.7285 +0.17

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
10.00 EUR EU Economic Forecasts
13.15 CAD Housing Starts 199K 189K
13.30 CAD NHPI m/m 0.1% 0.0%
13.30 USD Unemployment Claims 214K 214K
19.00 USD US Fed FOMC Statement
19.00 USD US Federal Funds Rate <2.25% <2.25%