Newsletter – 8th May 2018

Morning Bulletin

Friday

  • Eurozone Final Services PMI 54.7 (55.0 Exp)
  • Eurozone Retail Sales m/m 0.1% (0.5% Exp)
  • US Employment data was firmly in focus Friday afternoon. The headline Non-Farm payrolls figure came in weaker than expected and quite considerably so. 164,000 more people were in work during April, but that was well short of the 190,000 expected. US Average Earnings also dissapointed with wage growth of just +0.1% in April, down on the +2% expected.
  • Despite fewer Americans being employed than expected according to the Non-Farm payrolls print, surprisingly there was a fall in the overall Unemployment rate in April, with the rate falling to a 17 ½ year low of 3.9%. That is down from 4% previously and the 4.1% expected.
  • Although the data painted a slightly mixed picture the US Dollar rallied to it’s highest levels of 2018 when measured against a basket of major currencies.
Over The Long Weekend & This Morning
  • Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence 19.2 (21.2 Exp)
  • German Factory Orders m/m -0.9% (0.5% Exp)
  • Australia Retail Sales m/m 0.0% (0.2% Exp)
  • New Zealand Inflation Expectations q/q 2.0% (2.1% Previous)
  • China Trade Balance 183Bn (187Bn Exp)
  • German Industrial Production m/m 1.0% (0.8% Exp)
  • German Trade Balance 22.0Bn (19.9Bn Exp)
  • Sterling rates have taken a step back this morning following a massive decline in the Halifax House Price Index, with prices dropping 3.1% in April. A fall of just 0.3% had been forecast.
  • Speaking yesterday the ECB’s Chief Economist Praet played down the recent drop in core inflation, suggesting it was temporary due to the decrease in services inflation. He also added that an ample degree of monetary accommodation remained necessary.
Today
  • Very quiet on the data front today.
  • Worth noting it is a Bank Holiday in France today (Victory Day).

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1358 -0.11
GBP/USD 1.3537 -0.13
EUR/USD 1.1918 -0.02
AUD/USD 0.7499 -0.23

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
10.30 AUD Annual Budget Release 53.5 51.7
11.00 USD NFIB Small Busines Index 105.2 104.7
13.15 CAD Housing Starts 218K 225K
15.00 USD JOLTS Job Openings 6.02M 6.05M
19.00 USD President Trump Speaks