Newsletter – 8th May 2017

Morning Bulletin

Friday

  • The Euro continued to trade solidly Friday, underpinned by French Election polls that showed an increasing lead for Macron ahead of the crunch vote on Sunday. Both the Opinionway and Elabe polls had Macron out in front with 62% of the vote versus Le Pen’s 38% share.
  • There was no economic data due for release out of the UK Friday, however the Pound was broadly supported by the results of the local elections that took place across the UK. The Tories were the big gainers and that could well translate favourably in the upcoming general election. The general consensus being that a solid Tory majority should lead to a stronger Pound ahead of Brexit negotiations.
  • There was some welcome respite for the Canadian Dollar Friday afternoon, with the currency making gains following some solid economic data. Whilst the number of those employed in April (3,200) fell short of the expected 20,000, there was a big drop in the overall unemployment rate, with the figure falling to 6.5% from 6.7% previously.
  • Similarly, there were plenty of positives taken from the employment data out of the US Friday afternoon, and such data will be closely scrutinised ahead of the next US Fed meeting in June:
    • Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.3% as Expected
    • Non-Farm Employment Change 211K (194K Exp)
    • Unemployment Rate 4.4% (4.6% Exp)
Over The Weekend

  • FRENCH ELECTION: Emmanuel Macron trounced Marine Le Pen to become the next, and at 39, the youngest President of France yesterday evening. With over 66% of the vote, the victory was even greater than the 60:40 split that the polls had shown for well over a month. This was also the first time since 1958 that the President will represent a party outside of the two traditional main parties.
  • The Euro did briefly rally in FX space following confirmation of Macron’s victory, as was to be expected as Macron is very much pro-EU, however that rally proved fairly insignificant and the Euro is now in fact trading back at the levels it closed at Friday night.
  • Australian Building Approvals m/m -13.4% (8.3% previously)
  • Australian NAB Business Confidence 13 (6 previously)
  • Chinese Trade Balance 262Bn (164Bn previously)
  • German Factory Orders m/m 1.0% (3.4% previously)
Today

  • Incredibly sparse data calendar today with no key data due for release.
  • Worth noting today is a French Bank Holiday – Victory Day.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1831 +0.22
GBP/USD 1.2975 -0.01
EUR/USD 1.0964 -0.31
AUD/USD 0.7399 -0.21

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
08.30 GBP Halifax HPI m/m 0.0% 0.0%
09.30 EUR Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence 23.9
13.15 CAD Housing Starts 254K
13.35 USD US Fed Member Bullard Speaks
13.45 USD US Fed Member Mester Speaks
15.00 USD Labour Market Conditions Index m/m 0.4