Newsletter – 8th June 2017

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • Once again this week we had little key data to mull over yesterday.
  • Sterling performed strongly over the course of yesterday’s trading, with the Pound making decent gains against a number of it’s major currency counterparts. Most notably against the US Dollar and Euro, reaching highs of 1.2970 and 1.1523 respectively.
  • This Sterling strength could be a sign that markets and investors are slightly more confident that a Conservative win is now on the cards, but that a majority very much remains in the balance.
  • The Euro suffered a serious decline across the board yesterday morning as reports from Bloomberg emerged that the ECB could be downgrading their inflation forecasts at today’s meeting.
  • Simialrly Reuters reported the ECB could cut inflation outlook, but also added that they could be looking to nudge up their growth forecasts for the Eurozone economy.
  • The OECD increased global growth forecast to +3.5% for 2017 (+3.3% Previously), whilst their forecast for 2018 remained at +3.6%.
Overnight

  • A final look at latest UK Election Polls, ahead of voting day:
    • BMG Poll: Tories 46% vs Labour 33%; Converts to 380 Tory seats, 190 Labour.
    • YouGov Poll: Tories 42% vs Labour 35%
    • Kantor Poll: Tories 43% vs Labour 38%
  • UK Bookies (Betting Markets) are currently pricing in a 95.16% chance of Conservative victory, with a 10.59% chance for Labour.
  • Raft of key data out of the Asia-Pacific region overnight:
    • Australia Trade Balance 0.56Bn (1.91Bn Exp)
    • China Trade Balance 282Bn (336Bn Exp)
    • Japan Final GDP q/q 0.3% (0.6% Exp)
  • Swiss CPI m/m 0.2% (0.0% Exp)
Today
  • The UK General Election firmly takes centre stage today, with polling already open. Sterling will undoubtedly witness some big moves over the course of the day as markets and investors position themselves ahead of the results.
  • The Polls will close at 10pm tonight, with an exit poll expected shortly after. The official, overall result is unlikely to feed through until the early hours of Friday morning.
  • The UK Election is not the only key event today as markets will be closely watching the ECB Press Conference at 1.30pm. Whilst rates are expected to be held at 0.00%, there have been rumours that the ECB could cut their inflation forecasts up to 2019.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1516 +0.06
GBP/USD 1.2969 +0.07
EUR/USD 1.1260 +0.04
AUD/USD 0.7549 -0.01

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
ALL DAY GBP UK General Election
10.00 EUR Eurozone Revised GDP q/q 0.5% 0.5%
12.45 EUR ECB Minimum Bid Rate 0.00% 0.00%
13.15 CAD Housing Starts 205K 213K
13.30 EUR ECB Press Conference
13.30 USD Unemployment Claims 241K 248K
13.30 CAD NHPI m/m 0.3% 0.2%
16.15 CAD BOC Governor Poloz Speaks