Newsletter – 8th January 2019

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • Mixed data out of the Eurozone to kick off trading yesterday morning. Eurozone investor confidence was at its lowest level since December 2014. The Sentix reading of -1.5 in January was the fifth consecutive fall in the reading and was down significantly on the -0.3 reading in December. Sentix Managing Director Manfred Hubner said with this data it appears ‘the eurozone is dangerously close to stagnation’ and that ‘neither politicians nor central bankers seem to have really grasped the extent of this loss of momentum’.
  • The second Eurozone reading of the morning was far more positive with Retail Sales much stronger than expected in November. Month-on-month Sales were up 0.6% against an expected rise of 0.2%. The increase was partly accounted for by an increase in sales of clothing and electrical goods.
  • The US Dollar was once again the weakest performer in FX space yesterday as those dovish comments from Fed Chair Powell on Friday continued to weigh on the greenback.
  • According to an EU Commission spokesman there are no Brexit talks scheduled this week as negotiations are over. In stark contrast the latest line from the UK PM’s office is that Mrs May is getting on with trying to obtain the assurances she hopes will win over MP’s.
  • GBP/USD did trade to a one-week high of 1.2786, before closing the day up +0.34% at 1.2763.
  • EUR/USD closed the day up +0.62% at 1.1468.
  • US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI was the key reading yesterday afternoon and it showed the Services sector in the US slowed during December. The reading of 57.6 was still massively in expansionary territory, however it was down on the expected 59.6 and was the lowest reading since July 2018.
  • Canadian Ivey PMI 59.7 (58.1 Exp).
Overnight

  • According to UK Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay the UK will not be looking to extend the Article 50 process despite reports from the Daily Telegraph suggesting British and European officials have been discussing the possibility.
  • US Fed Member Bostic has revised his view on the Fed Funds rate, dropping to one rate hike in 2019 from two previously. Bostic added the Government shutdown could become more material if it lingers on.
  • Australia Trade Balance 1.93Bn (2.18Bn Exp)
  • Japan Consumer Confidence 42.7 (42.8 Exp)
  • German Industrial Production m/m -1.9% (0.3% Exp)
  • French Trade Balance -5.1Bn (-4.9Bn Exp)
Today
  • Another relatively quiet day on the data front.
  • US and Canadian Trade Balance data will be the key prints due at 1.30pm.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1164 +0.26
GBP/USD 1.2783 +0.07
EUR/USD 1.1451 -0.20
AUD/USD 0.7136 -0.12

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
11.00 USD NFIB Small Business Index 103.6 104.8
13.30 CAD Trade Balance -1.9Bn -1.2Bn
13.30 USD Trade Balance -54.0Bn -55.5Bn
15.00 USD JOLTS Job Openings 7.17M 7.08M
20.00 USD Consumer Credit m/m 14.3Bn 25.4Bn