Newsletter – 8th January 2017

Morning Bulletin

Friday

  • Canadian Employment data truly stole the show in Friday’s trading, despite the fact it was of course US ‘Non-Farm Friday’. With expectations of a very modest 1,800 rise in the number of people employed and the overall unemployment rate to creep up to 6.0%, the Canadian Dollar rocketed in FX space as the data smashed those expectations. The Canadian economy actually created 78,600 jobs in December, with the Unemployment rate plummeting down to5.7%. This has firmly put another rate hike back on the cards for the Bank of Canada in their next meeting.
  • Earlier in the day Eurozone Inflation came in-line with expectations at 1.4% y/y. That was down from a previous 1.5% and shows price growth remains stubborn and a potential issue for the ECB in 2018.
  • US Non-Farm payrolls was the headline figure Friday but it dissapointed, with the 148,000 jobs created in December falling well below the expected 190,000 jobs.
  • The overall US unemployment rate remained at 4.1% as expected.
  • US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 55.9 (57.6 Exp)
  • US Factory Orders m/m 1.3% (1.1% Exp)
Overnight

  • Swiss CPI m/m 0.0% (-0.1% Exp)
  • German Factory Orders m/m -0.4% (0.1% Exp)
  • UK Halifax HPI m/m -0.6% (0.2% Exp)
  • US Federal Reserve member Mester said she expects four rate hikes in 2018.
  • In contrast Fed member Harker see’s just two rate hikes as necessary this year, going slightly below the three that has been forecast by the Central Bank itself.
Today
  • Typically quiet data calendar for a Monday, with no key data set for release.
  • Might be worth noting UK PM Theresa May is due to reshuffle her cabinet later today.
  • Please be aware that it is a bank holiday in Japan today.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1287 +0.10
GBP/USD 1.3536 -0.20
EUR/USD 1.1992 -0.29
AUD/USD 0.7834 -0.31

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.30 EUR Sentix Investor Confidence 31.5 31.1
10.00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales m/m 1.4% -1.1%
15.30 CAD BOC Business Outlook Survey
17.40 USD Fed Member Bostic Speaks
18.35 USD Fed Member Williams Speaks