Newsletter – 8th December 2017

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • There was no key data to mull over yesterday morning.
  • The first main move yesterday saw the Pound sold off aggressively in FX space as reports emerged that the EU’s Chief Negotiator Barnier had told EU member states that the UK had just 48 hours to agree a deal or that talks would not advance to the next stage.
  • The Pound fell as low as 1.1299 and 1.3319 against the Euro and US Dollar respectively.
  • The only key economic data was released yesterday afternoon:
    • Canadian Building Permits m/m 3.5% (1.7% Exp)
    • US Unemployment Claims 236K (239K Exp)
    • Canadian Ivey PMI 63.0 (62.7 Exp)
  • Sterling recovered from yesterday’s lows and did begin to advance in the afternoon as reports surfaced regarding potential agreements between the EU and UK on the role of the ECJ post-Brexit, and on Citizens rights. There were also suggestions that the two parties were just a few billions apart on the Divorce Bill (What’s a few billion between neighbours anyway).
Overnight

  • Sterling has rallied across the board in FX space as Jean-Claude Juncker confirms ‘sufficient progress’ has now been made to advance Brexit talks to the next phase. Negotiators can now move on to discuss a potential transitional arrangement and a post-Brexit trade deal.
  • The DUP and the Irish Border of course emerged as the main stumbling block to an agreement earlier this week, but the DUP now appear satisfied with the text but say ‘more work to be done’ and how they vote on the final deal ‘will depend on its contents’.
  • The US Congress has passed a Bill to temporarily extend the US debt ceiling and avoid a potential Government shutdown.
  • Japan Final GDP q/q 0.6% (0.4% Exp)
  • Japan Current Account 2.44Tn (1.93Tn Exp)
  • China Trade Balance 264Bn (231Bn Exp)
  • French Industrial Production m/m 1.9% (-0.1% Exp)
Today
  • UK Manufacturing Production is the key print this morning at 9.30am.
  • Then look to the afternoon with a raft of key US Employment data at 1.30pm.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1503 +0.54
GBP/USD 1.3502 +0.22
EUR/USD 1.1740 -0.28
AUD/USD 0.7509 -0.01

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.30 GBP Manufacturing Production m/m 0.1% 0.7%
09.30 GBP Goods Trade Balance -11.5Bn -11.3Bn
13.00 GBP NIESR GDP Estimate 0.5%
13.30 USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.3% 0.0%
13.30 USD Non-Farm Employment Change 198K 261K
13.30 USD Unemployment Rate 4.1% 4.1%
15.00 USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 99.0 98.5