Newsletter – 8 March 2017

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • Yet another relatively quiet in day in FX space yesterday.
  • The theme was very consistent with respect to Sterling being on the back-foot once more. Gains are proving hard to come by for the Pound, with the triggering of Article 50 looming and a notable slowdown in economic data.
  • UK Halifax House Price Index m/m 0.1% (0.4% Exp).
  • Data out of New Zealand disappointed yesterday afternoon with a slightly wider than expected Trade Balance of -48.5Bn (-47.0Bn Exp). The Global Dairy Trade Price Index also fell by 6.3%.
  • Canadian Data painted a slightly mixed picture:
    • Trade Balance 0.8Bn (0.2Bn Exp).
    • Ivey PMI 55.0 (58.9 Exp).
  • OECD released their latest Economic Outlook, key points included:
    • Global Growth unchanged at 3.3% in 2017 and 3.6% in 2018.
    • UK Growth was upgraded to 1.6% in 2017; previously 1.2%.
    • Eurozone GDP remained at 1.6% for 2017, but cut from 1.7% to 1.6% in 2018.
Overnight

  • UK House of Lords voted down the Government once again yesterday evening. The Lords voted 366 to 268 in favour of amendment to Brexit Bill. This time to guarantee parliament a vote on the outcome of negotiations.
  • Unsurprisingly UK Brexit Secretary Davis quickly came out to state the government will aim to overturn these amendments in the commons.
  • China posted its first Trade Deficit in over 3 years. Expected to show a surplus of 173Bn for February, the actual figure was a deficit of 60Bn. This was due to a surge in imports, up 44.7% from a year earlier.
Today

  • Almost no economic data due for release this morning.
  • There is however a raft of Canadian figures due at 1.30pm, and just before that will be US Non-Farm Employment data (184K Exp).
  • However much of the focus today will of course be on the UK Chancellor Hammond’s Spring Budget which kicks off at 12.30pm. Despite the Chancellor potentially delivering a more upbeat assessment on the UK Economy, the budget is unlikely to feature any fiscal spending plans which could have given Sterling a timely lift.

 

MAJOR CURRENCY PAIRS
Current at time of distribution

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1528 -0.16
GBP/USD 1.2173 -0.22
EUR/USD 1.0557 -0.07
AUD/USD 0.7566 -0.24

 

ECONOMIC CALENDAR
Current at time of distribution
Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
12.30 GBP Annual Budget Release
13.15 USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 184K 246K
13.30 CAD Building Permits m/m 3.1% -6.6%
13.30 CAD Labour Productivity q/q 0.4% 1.2%
13.30 CAD Revised NonFarm Productivity q/q 1.5% 1.3%
15.00 USD Final Wholesale Inventories m/m -0.1% -0.1%