Newsletter – 7th November 2018

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • There was very little in the way of economic data to digest yesterday and that was largely reflected in fairly placid trading conditions. The lull in data did however benefit Sterling, as it continued it’s recent recovery underpinned by renewed hopes of a Brexit deal.
  • Having traded in the Mid-1.1400’s for most of the day the Pound did rally into the evening to hit a 5-month high of 1.1475.
  • Whilst against the US Dollar, which was hampered by uncertainty over the Mid-Terms, Sterling rallied just shy of the 1.3100 handle, and a 2-half week high.
  • The Pound was very briefly hampered late yesterday morning following bizarre comments from DUP MP Jeffrey Donaldson who said it looked like the UK was heading towards leaving the EU with no deal. The Pound did pause and drop back slightly before once again powering on as the MP’s comments were clearly in stark contrast to the positive noises coming from number 10.
  • The lower key data releases yesterday included:
    • Eurozone Final Services PMI 53.7 (53.3 Exp)
    • Eurozone Producer Price Index m/m 0.5% (0.4% Exp)
    • US JOLTS Job Openings 7.01M (7.09M Exp)
Overnight

  • The big story overnight and this morning was of course the results of the US Mid-Term elections. As is so often the case, but even more so on this occasion, the vote was seen as a referendum of sorts on President Trump’s two years in office so far. As largely expected the Democrats took the House of Representatives back for the first time in 8 years, a real blow to President Trump and his chances of pushing through some of his marquee election pledges such as the Mexican border wall. The President will however take some solace from his Republican party comfortably retaining the Senate.
  • The US Dollar has suffered some losses in FX space off the back of these results but fairly limited on the whole.
  • According to BBC sources following the meeting of Theresa May’s cabinet yesterday, Senior Ministers have agreed that they want to reach a Brexit deal by the end of November.
  • Japan Average Cash Earnings y/y 1.1% (1.2% Exp)
  • German Industrial Production m/m 0.2% (0.0% Exp)
  • Some really solid economic data out of New Zealand overnight:
    • Employment Change q/q 1.1% (0.5% Exp)
    • Unemployment Rate 3.9% (4.4% Exp)
    • Inflation Expectations q/q 2.0% (2.0% Previous)
Today
  • Incredibly quiet on the data front today.
  • However there could still be plenty of movement as the US Mid-Term results continue to be digested and Brexit stories continue to break.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1458 -0.06
GBP/USD 1.3141 +0.33
EUR/USD 1.1467 +0.37
AUD/USD 0.7267 +0.33

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
10.00 EUR Retail Sales m/m 0.1% -0.2%
14.00 CHF SNB Member Zrubrugg Speaks
15.00 CAD Ivey PMI 50.9 50.4
20.00 NZD Official Cash Rate 1.75% 1.75%
20.00 NZD RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
20.00 USD Consumer Credit m/m 16.2Bn 20.1Bn
21.00 NZD RBNZ Press Conference