Newsletter – 7th March 2019

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • EU officials have said that they would work non-stop over the weekend if ‘acceptable’ ideas were proposed by the UK by Friday to solve the issue of the Irish backstop.
  • The UK has already said ‘reasonable’ proposals that will satisfy MP’s concerns about being tied to EU rules had already been made. (BBC News)
  • Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn met Conservative MPs to discuss alternatives to the Mrs May’s deal in the event that is rejected again by parliament. Corbyn has stated that a ‘no-deal’ Brexit must avoided at all costs.
  • The Guardian reported that tariffs on 80-90% of goods would be reduced in the event of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit although no further details were published.
  • The DUP’s Brexit spokesperson has told MPs at Westminster that DUP MPs would vote for Mrs May’s deal if a time limit was applied the Irish backstop as it would effectively remove it from the withdrawal agreement. He also said that a no-deal is better than May’s current deal.
  • From the US, ADP non-farm employment change came in weaker than expected at 183K vs 190K expected.
  • Canadian trade balance came in worse than expected at -4.6B vs -2.4B expected.
  • Overnight rates in Canada were held at 1.75% and Ivey PMI came in weaker at 50.6 vs 55.1.
  • GBP/EUR opened at 1.1650, traded a high of 1.1656, a low of 1.1603 and closed at 1.1648 (-0.05%).
  • GBP/USD opened at 1.3178, traded a high of 1.3181, a low of 1.3124 and closed at 1.3170 (-0.06%).
  • US President Donald Trump said US-China trade talks are going well and the countries will emerge with a good deal or no deal at all.
Overnight
  • Australian retail sales m/m came in weaker than expected at 0.1% vs 0.3%.
  • The Australian trade balance came in better than expected at 4.55B vs 2.85B.
  • GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and GBP/JPY are trading at 1.8696, 1.9414 and 147.16, respectively.
Today
  • The ECB is expected to keep rates at 0.00% at 12:45 today.
  • The monetary policy statement will be released at the same time and will be followed by the ECB press conference at 1.30pm.
Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1629 -0.20
GBP/USD 1.3155 -0.09
EUR/USD 1.1313 +0.06
AUD/USD 0.7044 +0.17

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
12:45 EUR Main refinancing rate 0.00% 0.00%
12:45 EUR Monetary Policy Statement
13:30 EUR ECB Press Conference