Newsletter – 7th July 2017

Morning Bulletin


  • We saw a mixed day for sterling yesterday losing value against the euro but gaining against the US dollar.
  • GBP/EUR fell by just over a third of a percent over the course of the day opening at 1.1392 and closing at 1.1353 whereas GBP/USD made gains of 0.3% over the course of Thursday.
  • The dollar also weakened against the euro with EUR/USD pushing back up close to its recent highs at around the 1.1425 mark.
  • The US dollars cause was not helped by weaker than expected employment data. ADP non-farm employment change came in at 158K when 184K was expected and unemployment claims also came in worse than expected at 248K vs the estimated figure of 243K.
  • The US did product some stronger data in the afternoon with ISM non-manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations at 57.4 vs 56.5.
  • President Donald Trump visited Poland yesterday before moving on to Hamburg for today’s G20 summit where he is set to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin for the first.
  • Trump yesterday stated that North Korea are acting in a ‘very dangerous manner’ and said that the US are mulling over a very severe response to the DPRK’s recent intercontinental ballistic missile test.
  • Trump also urged Russia to stop it’s ‘destabilising behaviour’ in Ukraine and to stop supporting hostile regimes in Syria and Iran.
  • The ECB’s Nowotny yesterday said that the time and place of policy normalisation depends on the sustainability of inflation levels.
  • He also said that quantitative easing is not a permanent policy tool.
  • Overnight we saw AIG construction index from Australia come in at 56 and average cash earnings from Japan beat expectations at 0.7% vs 0.4% expected.
  • This morning we saw the Swiss unemployment rate come in as expected at 3.2% and German industrial production m/m beat expectations at 1.2% vs 0.2%.
  • Halifax HPI m/m from the UK was weaker than estimates at -0.1% vs 0.3% expected.
  • At 9.30am we see manufacturing production m/m from the UK a figure of 0.5% is expected. This is released alongside the UK goods trade balance figure.
  • This afternoon we have employment data from Canada and the US at 1.30pm and the Fed’s monetary policy report at 4pm.
  • The G20 summit takes place in Hamburg today as previously mentioned.


Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1343 -0.09
GBP/USD 1.2953 -0.13
EUR/USD 1.1418 -0.04
AUD/USD 0.7594 +0.17


Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09:30 GBP Manufacturing Production m/m 0.5% 0.2%
09:30 GBP Goods Trade Balance -10.8B -10.4B
13:30 CAD Employment Change 11.4K 54.5K
13:30 CAD Unemployment Change 6.6% 6.6%
13:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.3% 0.7%
13:30 USD Non-farm Employment Change 175K 138K
13:30 USD Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.3%
16:00 USD Fed Monetary Policy Report