- We saw a mixed day for sterling yesterday losing value against the euro but gaining against the US dollar.
- GBP/EUR fell by just over a third of a percent over the course of the day opening at 1.1392 and closing at 1.1353 whereas GBP/USD made gains of 0.3% over the course of Thursday.
- The dollar also weakened against the euro with EUR/USD pushing back up close to its recent highs at around the 1.1425 mark.
- The US dollars cause was not helped by weaker than expected employment data. ADP non-farm employment change came in at 158K when 184K was expected and unemployment claims also came in worse than expected at 248K vs the estimated figure of 243K.
- The US did product some stronger data in the afternoon with ISM non-manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations at 57.4 vs 56.5.
- President Donald Trump visited Poland yesterday before moving on to Hamburg for today’s G20 summit where he is set to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin for the first.
- Trump yesterday stated that North Korea are acting in a ‘very dangerous manner’ and said that the US are mulling over a very severe response to the DPRK’s recent intercontinental ballistic missile test.
- Trump also urged Russia to stop it’s ‘destabilising behaviour’ in Ukraine and to stop supporting hostile regimes in Syria and Iran.
- The ECB’s Nowotny yesterday said that the time and place of policy normalisation depends on the sustainability of inflation levels.
- He also said that quantitative easing is not a permanent policy tool.
- Overnight we saw AIG construction index from Australia come in at 56 and average cash earnings from Japan beat expectations at 0.7% vs 0.4% expected.
- This morning we saw the Swiss unemployment rate come in as expected at 3.2% and German industrial production m/m beat expectations at 1.2% vs 0.2%.
- Halifax HPI m/m from the UK was weaker than estimates at -0.1% vs 0.3% expected.
- At 9.30am we see manufacturing production m/m from the UK a figure of 0.5% is expected. This is released alongside the UK goods trade balance figure.
- This afternoon we have employment data from Canada and the US at 1.30pm and the Fed’s monetary policy report at 4pm.
- The G20 summit takes place in Hamburg today as previously mentioned.
|Currency Pair||Interbank Rate||% Change on Day|
|Time (GMT)||Region||Data Release||Forecast||Previous|
|09:30||GBP||Manufacturing Production m/m||0.5%||0.2%|
|09:30||GBP||Goods Trade Balance||-10.8B||-10.4B|
|13:30||USD||Average Hourly Earnings m/m||0.3%||0.7%|
|13:30||USD||Non-farm Employment Change||175K||138K|
|16:00||USD||Fed Monetary Policy Report|