Newsletter – 7th February 2018

Morning Bulletin


  • According to an SPD negotiator, Martin Schulz’s Social Democrats and Chancellor Merkel’s Conservatives were 95% of the way to reaching a coalition deal to form a new German Government.
  • Speaking yesterday ECB Member Weidmann suggested the greatest risk to the Eurozone recovery right now would be the assumption that all the problems had been solved. He added any shocks in specific regions or sectors of the economy could still put the Eurozone to the test.
  • There were no real high impact prints released yesterday, but some of the more notable ones included:
    • Canadian Trade Balance -3.2Bn (-2.3Bn Exp)
    • US Trade Balance -53.1Bn (-52.1Bn Exp)
    • Canadian Ivey PMI 55.2 (60.7 Exp)
    • US JOLTS Job Openings 5.81M (5.95M Exp)
  • According to a leaked EU Brexit document the EU could have the power to punish the UK at will during the transitional period. The document suggested the EU could close off certain parts of the single market to UK companies during this window.
  • Reacting to the aggressive sell off in global stock markets, US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said he was not overly concerned about the market volatility as he believes the underlying fundamentals are still strong.
  • These sentiments were echoed by the IMF’s Chief Economist Obstfeld who said despite the market turmoil, economic fundamentals are still strong.

  • There are some reports doing the rounds this morning that a deal has now been finalised between the German Conservatives and the Social Democrats to create a new German Coalition Government.
  • New Zealand Employment Change q/q 0.5% (0.4% Exp)
  • New Zealand Unemployment Rate 4.5% (4.7% Exp)
  • Japan Cash Earnings y/y 0.7% (0.6% Exp)
  • German Industrial Production m/m -0.6% (-0.7% Exp)
  • Looks set to be a quiet day where economic data is concerned; however we have already seen plenty of volatility this week so unlikely to be quiet in FX markets.
  • The only key data of note isn’t released until later tonight, with focus on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and their monetary policy meeting.


Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1266 -0.04
GBP/USD 1.3944 -0.01
EUR/USD 1.2373 -0.02
AUD/USD 0.7877 -0.35


Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.00 EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m -0.1% 1.1%
13.30 CAD Building Permits m/m 2.1% -7.7%
13.30 USD Fed Member Dudley Speaks
20.00 NZD RBNZ Cash Rate 1.75% 1.75%
20.00 NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
20.00 NZD RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
21.00 NZD RBNZ Press Conference