Newsletter – 7 March 2017

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • With a real dearth of data for release, yesterday proved largely quiet in FX space.
  • Sterling was one of the worst performers, suffering small losses against the majority of its currency counterparts as the Pound continues to be weighed down by Brexit and recent weaker than expected economic data.
  • The Pound opened the day at 1.2271 against the US Dollar, but closed at 1.2232.
  • The Euro was also on the defensive for the best part of yesterday, following the announcement that former French Prime Minister Alain Juppe had ruled out challenging Francois Fillon in the race for the French Presidency. Following the allegations that have dogged Fillon in the campaign so far, Juppe was a potential to replace Fillon as the Conservative candidate.
  • There were also two low key Eurozone releases yesterday morning:
    • Eurozone Retail PMI 49.9 (50.1 Previously).
    • Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence 20.7 (18.8 Exp).
  • US Factory Orders m/m 1.2% (1.1% Exp).
  • IFOP French Election Poll: Marine Le Pen leads first round at 26.5% to Macron at 25.5%; however in the run off, Macron has massive lead at 61.0% to Le Pen’s 39.0%.
Overnight

  • Reserve Bank of Australia opted to keep interest rates on hold at 1.50%.
  • Almost echoing the statement from their previous January meeting, the RBA have taken a neutral stance with regards to which direction the next rate movement could be.
  • UK BRC Retail Sales monitor y/y -0.4% (-0.5% Exp).
  • German Factory Orders m/m -7.4% (-2.5% Exp).
  • FRANCE: Following Alain Juppe ruling himself out of the running yesterday, the Conservative party in France have now unanimously backed Francois Fillon to run for President and will be re-launching his campaign.
Today

  • Another relatively empty data calendar today.
  • Canadian and New Zealand Trade Balance data arguably the more important releases at 1.30pm.
  • The New Zealand Global Dairy Trade price index is also due for release at some stage this afternoon (Yet TBC), that can have a big impact on the Kiwi Dollar.

 

MAJOR CURRENCY PAIRS
Current at time of distribution

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1529 -0.29
GBP/USD 1.2210 -0.23
EUR/USD 1.0591 +0.09
AUD/USD 0.7602 +0.30

 

ECONOMIC CALENDAR
Current at time of distribution
Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
10.00 EUR Eurozone Revised GDP q/q 0.4% 0.4%
13.30 CAD Trade Balance 0.2Bn 0.9Bn
13.30 NZD Trade Balance -47.0Bn -44.3Bn
TBC NZD GDT Price Index -3.2%
15.00 CAD Ivey PMI 58.9 57.2
13.30 USD Unemployment Claims 243K 244K