Newsletter – 7 February 2017

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • German Factory Orders month-on-month accelerated to grow at their fastest pace since Mid-2014. Factory orders rocketed 5.2% in December 2016 against expected growth of just 0.6%.
  • Despite this blowout print the Euro didn’t find any great strength in the morning before then being put under selling pressure as ECB President Draghi spoke in the afternoon.
  • Addressing a European Parliament Affairs Committee, President Draghi on the one hand said that their decision to cut QE pace in December reflected the ECB’s growing confidence, but yet on the other suggested the ECB was still prepared to increase the size/pace of the QE program should it be necessary, stating that economic outlook remains tilted to the downside.
  • Opinion poll in France has Marine Le Pen (National Front) ahead in the first round of voting for presidential race; Le Pen has 26%, Macron 23% and Fillon 20%.
  • US President Trump stated the US strongly supports NATO, however they want all members making full contribution.
Overnight

  • Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Cash Rate remained at1.50% as expected. The accompanying statement from the RBA suggested that rates could remain on hold for some time yet and that the bank held a neutral bias.
  • New Zealand Inflation Expectations q/q 1.9% (1.7% previously)
  • Speaking overnight, US Fed Member Harker said that a rate hike could be on the table in the Fed’s March meeting.
Today

  • Very little going on this morning, however we do have plenty of data out of Canada and the United States this afternoon including respective Trade Balance for both countries.
  • Both Sterling and the Euro are on the back-foot this morning.

 

MAJOR CURRENCY PAIRS
Current at time of distribution

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1590 -0.06
GBP/USD 1.2368 -0.77
EUR/USD 1.0670 -0.74
AUD/USD 0.7623 -0.46

 

ECONOMIC CALENDAR
Current at time of distribution
Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
08.30 GBP Halifax HPI m/m 0.2% 1.7%
13.30 CAD Trade Balance 1.2Bn 0.5Bn
13.30 CAD Building Permits m/m -0.1%
13.30 USD Trade Balance -45.0Bn -45.2Bn
TBC NZD GDT Price Index 0.6%
15.00 CAD Ivey PMI 58.3 60.8
15.00 USD JOLTS Job Openings 5.56M 5.52M