Newsletter – 6th September 2018

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • UK Services PMI bucked the trend yesterday morning with the print of 54.3 in August bettering the 53.9 expected. The survey revealed that UK services firms were working at capacity with full order books. Construction and Manufacturing PMI readings released earlier in the week both fell short of expectations.
  • Of course the big news yesterday afternoon which overshadowed any economic data was the bloomberg report that suggested both the German and UK Government were prepared to overlook some of the finer details of a post-Brexit trade relationship in order to secure a divorce deal before the March 2019 deadline.
  • Following the report Sterling rallied aggressively across the board in FX space, trading to a week’s high of 1.2982 against the US Dollar and 1.1165 against the Euro.
  • However those gains were quickly eroded within a matter of hours as Government officials from Germany and the UK refuted the claims. Many also pointed to the fact that whilst Germany might be the engine of the European Union, it does not solely guide the EU’s position on Brexit matters.
  • Eurozone Retail Sales m/m -0.2% (-0.1% Exp)
  • Canada Trade Balance -0.1Bn (-1.1Bn Exp)
  • The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 1.50% yesterday afternoon as widely expected. The BOC has hiked once already this year but opted to stand firm this month to monitor the fallout from NAFTA negotiations and how that could potentially impact inflation.      
Overnight

  • US President Donald Trump has said it remains to be seen whether the new NAFTA deal will include two or three countries, but that a deal could be reached within days. Unable to resist a jibe, the President added that the US would be fine if the deal doesnt work out but Canada would not be.
  • Australia Trade Balance 1.55Bn (1.46Bn Exp)
  • Swiss GDP q/q 0.7% (0.5% Exp)
  • German Factory Orders m/m -0.9% (1.8% Exp)
Today
  • Could be a quiet session this morning with no data set for release.
  • Plenty of US data this afternoon, with Non-Farm employment change at 1.15pm and ISM Non-Manufacturing at 3pm being the key prints.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1102 +0.04
GBP/USD 1.2918 +0.11
EUR/USD 1.1632 +0.03
AUD/USD 0.7179 -0.15

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
12.30 USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y -4.2%
13.15 USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 195K 219K
13.30 CAD Building Permits m/m 1.1% -2.3%
13.30 USD Unemployment Claims 214K 213K
14.45 USD Final Services PMI 55.2 55.2
15.00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 56.8 55.7
15.00 USD Fed Member Williams Speaks
15.00 USD Factory Orders m/m -0.5% 0.7%