Newsletter – 6th November 2018

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • Sterling continued to feed off the latest bout of Brexit optimism yesterday, making solid gains across the board in FX space. Most notably the Pound gained almost 0.5% on the US Dollar, closing the day up around 1.3023. The Pound also closed the day above the 1.1400 handle against the Euro, closing at around 1.1422, a gain of 0.23%.
  • The Pound shrugged off yesterday’s only key UK economic print which was a weaker than expected Services PMI reading. The October reading of 52.2 was comfortably short of the 53.4 expected, and the slowest rate of expansion since March.
  • EU Investor Confidence fell for the third consecutive month in November. The reading of 8.8 was the lowest since October 2016 as investors remain concerned with issues both within the Eurozone and global economies.
  • According to John Glen, Britain’s Financial Services Minister, a deal with the EU on Financial Services post-Brexit could be reached imminently. The UK is seeking ‘equivalence’ with the EU on financial market access, which would mean UK firms could continue to operate within the EU provided home rules align closely with those of the bloc.
  • US Final Services PMI 54.8 (54.7 Exp)
  • US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 60.3 (59.3 Exp)
Overnight

  • Sterling has found fresh impetus this morning and edged higher across the board in FX space. This morning’s move was prompted by a report from The Times which suggested the EU is preparing to offer a compromise on the Irish Border issue in order to resolve the last real sticking point in Brexit negotiations. The compromise which would put in place an ‘independent mechanism’ allowing the UK to end a temporary customs arrangement with the bloc should also aid UK PM May in appeasing the hardline Brexiteers in her party.
  • The Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates on hold at 1.50% as expected overnight with no hints or suggestions that the rate could be raised anytime soon. Many analysts are also of that opinion as the Aussie economy has suffered low wage growth, weak household spending and a cooling property market.
  • German Factory Orders m/m +0.3% (-0.4% Exp)
  • Japan Household Spending y/y -1.6% (+1.6% Exp)
  • UK BRC Retail Sales monitor y/y 0.1% (0.6% Exp)
  • Eurozone Final Services PMI 53.7 (53.3 Exp)
Today
  • Very quiet on the economic data today.
  • The key event which will be closely watched across the globe today will be the US Mid-term elections, with American voters heading to the polls to elect 435 members to the US House of Representatives and 34 members to the senate.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1443 +0.32
GBP/USD 1.3065 +0.22
EUR/USD 1.1417 +0.10
AUD/USD 0.7235 +0.35

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
10.00 EUR PPI m/m 0.4% 0.3%
13.30 CAD Building Permits m/m 0.3% 0.4%
TBC NZD Global Dairy Trade Price Index -0.3%
15.00 USD JOLTS Job Openings 7.14M
All Day USD Congressional Elections