Newsletter – 6th June 2019

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • The UK service sector showed slight improvement in May with a PMI reading of 51.0, bettering the 50.6 expected and the 50.4 registered in April. The survey showed services firms saw an increase in new work for the first time in 5 months.
  • Eurozone PPI m/m -0.3% (0.4% Exp)
  • Eurozone Retail Sales m/m -0.4% (-0.5% Exp)
  • US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 27K (185K Exp)
  • Speaking yesterday IMF Chief Christine Lagarde said she does not believe the continuing trade war between the US and China, and the new threat of US tariffs on Mexico will lead to a global recession.
  • ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 56.9 (55.6 Exp)
  • Speaking yesterday US Fed Member Kaplan said whilst risks to the downside have increased, he believes it is too early to be calling for interest rate cuts anytime soon.
Overnight

  • Australia Trade Balance 4.87Bn (5.05Bn Exp)
  • German Factory Orders m/m 0.3% (0.1% Exp)
  • Financial markets are now pricing in more than a 70% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in July following comments from a number of Senior Fed members this week whom all appeared to leave the door open to such a move next month.
Today
  • The ECB will be firmly in focus this afternoon with their rate decision and monetary policy statement due at 12.45pm and the accompanying press conference from 1.30pm.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1279 -0.18
GBP/USD 1.2675 -0.06
EUR/USD 1.1235 +0.13
AUD/USD 0.6977 +0.13

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
10.00 EUR Final Employment Change q/q 0.3% 0.3%
10.00 EUR Revised GDP q/q 0.4% 0.4%
10.00 GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
12.45 EUR ECB Interest Rate 0.00% 0.00%
12.45 EUR ECB Monetary Policy Statement
13.30 EUR ECB Press Conference
13.30 CAD Trade Balance -2.8Bn -3.2Bn
13.30 USD Trade Balance -50.5Bn -50.0Bn
13.30 USD Unemployment Claims 215K 215K
15.00 USD Ivey PMI 56.2 55.9