Newsletter – 6th July 2017

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • Movement within currency markets yesterday was fairly muted with no major moves of note over the course of the day.
  • GBP/EUR opened and closed the day’s trading around the 1.1400 handle, whilst GBP/USD opened around 1.2900 and closed marginally higher at 1.2930.
  • The morning session kicked off with a raft of European member states Service PMI readings which culminated in the overall Eurozone Final Services PMI reading of 55.4(54.7 Exp).
  • Shortly after, UK Services PMI data was released and at53.4 it fell just shy of the expected 53.6. Despite this representing the 11th straight month of expansion (reading over 50.0) there were concerns over a soft rise in incoming new work.
  • Speaking yesterday morning, ECB member Coeure said that he and his colleagues at the Central Bank had not yet discussed changes to current monetary policy, but that those conversations may come.
  • According to sources, in order to avoid tweaking their current policy stance the Bank of Japan could slash their inflation forecasts at their upcoming rate review this month.
  • US Factory Orders m/m -0.8% (-0.5% Exp)
Overnight
  • The minutes from the latest US Fed meeting were released yesterday evening and they showed a slight divide. The divide was between those members who felt the central bank should start slowly shrinking their huge portfolio of bonds within the next few months, and those who felt they should wait longer to avoid giving off wrong signals in particular with regards to the speed of future rate hikes.
  • The US Dollar was largely unmoved off the back of the minute’s release.
  • Australia Trade Balance 2.47Bn (1.00Bn Exp)
  • German Factory Orders m/m 1.0% (1.9% Exp)
  • Swiss CPI m/m -0.1% (0.0% Exp)
Today
  • Potentially quiet morning in store with little data slated for release.
  • There is however a raft of key US and Canadian data due this afternoon, from 1.15pm.
  • The minutes from the ECB’s latest monetary policy meeting will also be closely scrutinised following their release at 12.30pm.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1392 -0.04
GBP/USD 1.2932 +0.01
EUR/USD 1.1350 +0.00
AUD/USD 0.7599 -0.03

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.10 EUR Eurozone Retail PMI 52.0
12.30 EUR ECB Monthly Meeting Minutes
12.30 USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y 9.7%
13.15 USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 184K 253K
13.30 CAD Trade Balance -0.5Bn -0.4Bn
13.30 CAD Building Permits m/m 2.5% -0.2%
13.30 USD Unemployment Claims 243K 244K
13.30 USD Trade Balance -46.3Bn -47.6Bn
15.00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 56.5 56.9
15.00 USD US Fed Member Powell Speaks