Newsletter – 6th August 2018

Morning Bulletin

Friday

  • Friday morning kicked-off with somewhat of a warning from the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney. Speaking to BBC radio, the Governor said the possibility of a no-deal Brexit was ‘uncomfortably high’ and would be ‘highly undesirable’. He also added a transitional period would absolutely be in the interests of both the UK and the EU.
  • On interest rates, Carney said that the markets current expectations of a move to 1.5% over the next few years was not a bad rule of thumb.
  • Shortly after Carney’s comments, the UK Services PMI print dissapointed with a reading of 53.5 in July. That fell short of the 54.7 expected and a previous 55.1 in June. Many retailers reported the summer heatwave and the football World Cup had kept consumers away from their businesses.
  • US Jobs data was the main event of Friday’s trading with the Non-Farm Employment print as always the absolute key piece of data. Whilst the overall Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings were bang in-line at 3.9% and 0.3% respectively, the headline Non-Farm figure fell short of expectations. The US Economy had some 157,000 more people in employment during July, but that was down on the 191,000 expected.
  • Canadian Exports hit a record high in June, which contributed to the slashing of Canada’s overall trade deficit to a 17-month low -0.6Bn. A deficit of -2.3Bn was expected. Exports increased by 4.1% in June with energy products and aircraft the main drivers.
  • US-CHINA TRADE WAR: The Chinese commerce ministry announced on Friday that they were preparing to place tariffs on $60Bn worth of US goods. The move comes in retaliation to President Trumps most recent round of tariffs on Chinese goods.
Over The Weekend

  • Speaking over the weekend the UK’s International trade secretary, Liam Fox, said the chances of a ‘no deal-Brexit’ were 60:40, laying the blame firmly at the EU’s door. Fox added that the UK had made a generous offer to the EU, arguably overly-generous according to some in the UK.
  • The EU appear to be softening their position on the Irish Border issue. Arguably the biggest stumbling block thus far in the Brexit negotiations, a Senior EU diplomat has said the EU may look to limit the legal power they would weild over Northern Ireland as part of the backstop plans.
  • German Factory Orders m/m -4.0% (-0.3% Exp)
Today
  • Complete lack of data set for release, will be a quiet one where economic data is concerned.
  • Please be aware it is an Australian and Canadian bank holiday today.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1221 -0.13
GBP/USD 1.2974 -0.18
EUR/USD 1.1561 -0.03
AUD/USD 0.7396 -0.03

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.30 EUR Sentix Investor Confidenec 12.8 12.1
11.30 AUD AIG Construction Index 50.6