Newsletter – 6th April 2018

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • UK Services PMI dissapointed yesterday morning, with the reading of 51.7 falling comfortably short of the expected 53.9 for the month of March. This was the weakest pace of growth since July 2016 but was attributed to unusually bad weather conditions caused by the ‘Beast from the East’.
  • Eurozone PPI m/m 0.1% (0.00% Exp)
  • Eurozone Retail Sales m/m 0.1% (0.6% Exp)
  • According to Canadian PM Trudeau NAFTA talks have been progressing in a significant way.
  • Canada Trade Balance -2.7Bn (-2.1Bn Exp)
  • US Unemployment Claims 242K (225K Exp)
  • Credit Ratings Agency Fitch affirmed the US at ‘AAA’ with a stable outlook yesterday afternoon. The report adding the US is supported by structural strengths including the size of the economy, high per capita income and a dynamic business environment.
  • We also heard from fellow ratings agency S&P yesterday, with them stating that the US-China trade dispute is currently just a skirmish but credit risks are rising.
  • Despite all the trade tensions with China the US Dollar was one of the best performers in FX space yesterday, perhaps buoyed by a more conciliatory tone from the US Government and their apparent willingness to still discuss matters with China.
Overnight

  • President Trump has apparently instructed his trade negotiator to consider an additional $100Bn worth of tariffs against China, whilst a statement from the White House added the US is still prepared to have discussions.
  • Unsurprisingly China’s Ministry of Commerce has issued its own statement vowing to take comprehensive measures to safeguard the country’s interest against protectionist behaviour.
  • Japan Household Spending y/y 0.1% (0.3% Exp)
  •  Japan Average Cash Earnings y/y 1.3% (0.5% Exp)
  • Japan Leading Indicators 105.8% (105.5% Exp)
  • German Industrial Production m/m -1.6% (0.2% Exp)
Today
  • The real activity is likely to take place this afternoon with a raft of employment data out of the United States and Canada at 1.30pm. US Non-Farm payrolls will be the most closely watched.
  • The week closes with speeches from the respective heads of the UK and US Central banks, Gov Carney and Fed Chair Powell.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1449 +0.07
GBP/USD 1.4004 +0.01
EUR/USD 1.2230 -0.07
AUD/USD 0.7679 -0.02

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.10 EUR Eurozone Retail PMI 52.3
09.30 GBP Housing Equity Withdrawal q/q -6.7Bn -5.9Bn
13.30 CAD Employment Change 18.8K 15.4K
13.30 CAD Unemployment Rate 5.8% 5.8%
13.30 USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.3% 0.1%
13.30 USD Non-Farm Employment Change 190K 313K
13.30 USD Unemployment Rate 4.0% 4.1%
15.00 CAD Ivey PMI 60.2 59.6
16.15 GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
18.30 USD US Fed Chair Powell Speaks