Newsletter – 6th April 2017

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • Just the one piece of key data released yesterday morning and it was a good one for Sterling with a UK Services PMI print of 55.0 bettering the expected 53.5. That was one of the higher readings of the past 15 months and was timely given the weaker UK Manufacturing and Construction PMI readings released so far this week.
  • That data underpinned Sterling strength throughout the course of the day as the Pound pushed the 1.2500 and 1.1700 handles versus the US Dollar and Euro respectively.
  • The Pound could well have found a way through the 1.2500 level against the US Dollar were it not for a blowout US Jobs creation report released after midday. The US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (Snappy title) print showed that US companies added some 263,000 jobs in March, against an expected increase of 184,000.
  • This Stellar US Jobs creation data was slightly dampened by a worse than expected US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI print of 55.2 (57.0 Exp) released a couple of hours later.
  • Speaking yesterday afternoon Bank of England member Vlieghe warned that raising UK interest rates too soon could prove more of a serious mistake than waiting too long.
  • The EU’s chief Brexit Negotiator said a scenario where the UK walked away from the table with no deal is not what the EU is looking for, however Mr Barnier did warn that pursuing a free trade deal alongside divorce talks was a very risky approach for the UK to take.

Overnight

  • The minutes from the US Fed’s most recent meeting were released last night, key points:
    • Most members anticipate a continuation of gradual interest rate rises.
    • Nearly all members believed the US economy is operating at or near max employment.
    • A number of participants think it could be some time before inflation reached 2% on a sustained basis.
  • German Factory Orders m/m 3.4% (3.5% Exp)
  • Swiss CPI m/m 0.2% (0.2% Exp)
  • Speaking this morning ECB President Mario Draghi said the ECB was confident monetary policy was working and that the economic outlook is gradually improving. However he also said that there was insufficient evidence on Inflation outlook to consider reassessing current monetary policy. That comment in particular has seen the Euro weaken in FX space.

Today

  • Relatively quiet on the data front today.
  • Key at 12.30pm will be the release of the ECB’s most recent policy meeting minutes.
  • The only data of note this afternoon comes at 1.30pm and the release of both Canadian Building Permits and US Unemployment Claims.
Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1733 +0.16
GBP/USD 1.2486 +0.02
EUR/USD 1.0641 -0.18
AUD/USD 0.7544 -0.29

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.10 EUR Eurozone Retail PMI 49.9
12.30 EUR ECB Monetary Policy Minutes
12.30 USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y -40.0%
13.30 CAD Building Permits m/m 5.4%
13.30 USD Unemployment Claims 251K 258K
14.30 USD US Fed Member Williams Speaks
21.00 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks