Newsletter – 6 January 2017

Morning Bulletin

Friday

  • Friday was dominated by data releases out of the US and Canada, and we pretty much had to wait until these figures at 1.30pm to see any great movement in FX space.
  • The Canadian data was massively impressive, with the number of people employed during the month of December soaring to 53,700 against an expected drop of 5,000.  Canada’s Trade Balance also beat expectations in November with a positive reading of 0.5Bn against an expected negative 1.6 Bn; the Canadian Dollar found good strength following these numbers.
  • The US data was slightly more mixed:
    • Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.4% (0.3% Exp)
    • Non-Farm Employment Change 156K (175K Exp)
    • Unemployment Rate 4.7% as
  • Sterling was one of the main underperformers in Friday’s trading despite another week of encouraging data releases. However as the triggering of Article 50 edges ever closer there will undoubtedly continue to be marked rises and falls for the Pound in FX space.
  • Speaking Friday evening, US Fed member Evans suggested that the expectation of two rate hikes this year was not unreasonable, and that three was not implausible.
Over The Weekend & This Morning
  • Australian Building Approvals m/m 7.0% (4.6% Exp)
  • Sterling has suffered heavy losses already this morning following UK PM Teresa May’s comments over the weekend. The PM signalled that regaining full control of immigration and law-making were her Brexit priorities even if that meant the UK had to leave the single market.The US data was slightly more mixed:
    • As we have seen time and time again over the past few months any talk of a hard Brexit from senior UK politicians leads to a weakening in Sterling.
Today
  • There are no high impact data releases due today, however there are a number of low to Medium impact numbers to look out for over the course of the day which are highlighted in the below economic calendar.

MAJOR CURRENCY PAIRS
Current at time of distribution

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1551 -0.94%
GBP/USD 1.2185 -0.77%
EUR/USD 1.0549 +0.17%
AUD/USD 0.7319 +0.37%

ECONOMIC CALENDAR
Current at time of distribution

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
08.30 GBP Halifax HPI m/m 0.2%
09.00 EUR Italian Unemployment Rate 11.6% 11.6%
09.30 EUR Sentix Investor Confidence 12.6 10.0
10.00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate 9.8% 9.8%
15.00 USD Labour Market Conditions Index m/m 1.5
15.30 CAD BOC Business Outlook Survey
20.00 USD Consumer Credit m/m 18.3Bn 16.0Bn