Newsletter – 5th September 2018

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • Sterling came under further pressure yesterday morning following a weaker than expected Construction PMI print. The figure for August was 52.9, considerably short of the 54.9 expected.
  • GBP/USD traded as low as 1.2817 immediately after the figure.
  • Eurozone PPI m/m 0.4% (0.3% Exp)
  • The Kiwi Dollar was one of yesterday’s worst performers in FX space. Even the struggling Pound surged from 1.9473 in the morning to close the day at the 1.9600 handle.
  • The South African rand also endured a dreadful day’s trading yesterday as the SA economy dipped into a technical recession. The second quarter contraction of -0.7% followed a revised contraction of -2.6% in the first quarter of 2018.
  • Speaking yesterday afternoon Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe said the next move in Aussie interest rates is likely to be up, not down. He did however add that any move still seems a long way off.
  • The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has signalled he could be prepared to stay on beyond his planned leaving date in June 2019. Carney said he would be willing to do whatever it takes to ensure a smooth Brexit.
  • US ISM Manufacturing PMI 61.3 (57.6 Exp)
  • New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Index -0.7% (-3.6% Previously)
Overnight

  • According to a lawmaker in Brussels the European Union could be prepared to ‘tweak’ the backstop solution for the Irish Border in order to win over the UK Parliament and overcome a previously massive hurdle to securing the divorce agreement.
  • Whilst acknowledging that a rate hike this month was pretty much nailed, US Fed Member Bullard still called upon his colleagues to reconsider and hold off hiking rates month. Bullard believes the Fed should stand firm for the moment and wait for further data.
  • The Australian economy grew at 0.9% in the second quarter of 2018 according to GDP data released overnight. That surpassed the 0.7% expected and was supported by government infrastructure programs, strong consumer spending and an upbeat business environment. Despite the positive data the Aussie Dollar still remains weak in FX space.
  • China Caixin Services PMI 51.5 (52.7 Exp)
Today
  • UK Services PMI is the key print this morning due at 9.30am.
  • This afternoon Canada takes centre stage with Trade Balance data due at 1.30pm, followed by the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision and statement at 3pm.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1083 -0.14
GBP/USD 1.2817 -0.27
EUR/USD 1.1564 -0.14
AUD/USD 0.7162 -0.16

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.30 GBP Services PMI 53.9 53.5
10.00 EUR Retail Sales m/m -0.1% 0.3%
13.30 CAD Trade Balance -1.1Bn -0.6Bn
13.30 CAD Labor Productivity q/q 0.5% -0.3%
13.30 USD Trade Balance -50.2Bn -46.3Bn
15.00 CAD BOC Rate Statement
15.00 CAD Overnight Rate 1.50% 1.50%