Newsletter – 5th October 2018

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • The Pound was one of the best performing currencies in FX space yesterday, underpinned by positive Brexit related news. According to Reuters, an EU source has said the UK’s new proposals for the Irish border were a step in the right direction, and that it could make finding a compromise possible.
  • Following the news the Pound broke back above the 1.1300 handle against the Euro, trading to a 2 and a half month high of 1.1319.
  • Similarly against the US Dollar the Pound mustered enough strength the break back above the 1.3000 handle.
  • Economic data was thin on the ground yesterday, some of the more noteworthy prints included:
    • US Unemployment Claims 207K (214K Exp)
    • Canada IVEY PMI 50.4 (62.3 Exp)
    • US Factory Orders m/m 2.3% (2.2% Exp)
  • According to ECB Member Olli Rehn current market expectations of the timing of a first ECB rate rise are inline with ECB statements. Rehn added that rates would remain at their present levels until at least September 2019.
  • Speaking yesterday afternoon, and much to the delight of those Eurosceptic Tories, the EU’s Donald Tusk said that the EU remained open to a Canada +++ deal, which would be much further reaching on trade, on internal security and on foreign policy co-operation than Canada’s trade deal.
Overnight

  • According to Reuters, EU negotiators have told national diplomats in Brussels overnight that a divorce deal with Britain is very close.
  • Australia Retail Sales m/m 0.3% as expected.
  • Japan Average Cash Earnings y/y 0.9% (1.3% Exp).
  • German Factory Orders m/m 2.0% (0.7% Exp).
Today
  • Quiet on the data front this morning.
  • This afternoon there is a raft of US and Canadian economic data.
  • US Non-Farm employment will be the most closely watched release at 1.30pm.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1332 +0.23
GBP/USD 1.3027 +0.04
EUR/USD 1.1495 -0.15
AUD/USD 0.7060 -0.17

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
13.30 CAD Employment Change 25.0K -51.6K
13.30 CAD Unemployment Rate 5.9% 6.0%
13.30 CAD Trade Balance -0.5Bn -0.1Bn
13.30 USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.3% 0.4%
13.30 USD Non-Farm Employment Change 185K 201K
13.30 USD Unemployment Rate 3.8% 3.9%
13.30 USD Trade Balance -53.4Bn -50.1Bn