- There was a welcome increase in output in the UK construction industry according to figures Friday morning with a rebound in Civil Engineering the main driver. The Construction PMI reading rose to 53.2 in October, the second highest in the last 16 months and up from 52.1 in September.
- Having seen a marked recovery on Wednesday and Thursday on renewed hopes of a Brexit deal, the Pound was in consolidation mode for most of Friday, not really making or losing any ground versus it’s major currency counterparts.
- Slightly mixed economic data out of Canada Friday afternoon. The economy did create a further 11,200 jobs during October, however that was down on the 12,700 expected but proved enough to see the overall unemployment rate drop to 5.8% (5.9% was forecast). Released at the same time the Canadian Trade Balance dissapointed with imports outweighing exports to the tune of -0.4Bn. A trade surplus of +0.2Bn had been expected.
- The US Dollar was one of the best performers in FX space Friday afternoon following the release of solid jobs data. Whilst average hourly earnings m/m and the overall unemployment rate were in-line with expectations at 0.2% and 3.7% respectively there was a massive beat on expectations for job creation. The Non-Farm employment change figure showed the economy created 250,000 jobs in October, smashing the 194,000 expected.
- Despite the ongoing trade war and the raft of tariffs imposed on China by President Trump, the United states ran a record high trade deficit against China in September. The overall level of US imports also hit an all-time record high of $266.6Bn during September.
Over The Weekend
- According to the Sunday Times UK PM Theresa May has clinched a Brexit deal that would allow the whole of the UK to remain in a customs union with the EU in order to protect the Irish Border. The rumored agreement would also include an ‘exit clause’ to appease pro-Brexit MP’s, whilst a Canada-style free trade agreement would remain open as an option.
- The Sunday Times again report that Theresa May will be meeting with her cabinet on Tuesday to discuss the plan.
- Speaking overnight Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda ruled out any near-term hike in interest rates, stating that raising rates now would only add to the burden on financial institutions which could risk derailing the country’s economic recovery.
- China Caixin Services PMI 50.8 (52.9 Exp)
- Spanish Unemployment Change 52.2K (20.4K Previous)
- UK Services PMI is the only high impact print this morning due at 9.30am.
- This afternoon we will hear from Bank of Canada Gov Poloz at 1.10pm, his comments could impact Canadian Dollar pairs.
|Currency Pair||Interbank Rate||% Change on Day|
|Time (GMT)||Region||Data Release||Forecast||Previous|
|09.30||EUR||Sentix Investor Confidence||9.9||11.4|
|13.10||CAD||BOC Gov Poloz Speaks|
|14.45||USD||Final Services PMI||54.7||54.7|
|15.00||USD||ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI||59.3||61.6|