Newsletter – 5th May 2017

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • The euro strengthened against sterling yesterday with GBP/EUR opening at 1.1816 and closing 1.1767.
  • The euro strength comes after an IFOP poll shows Macron beating Le Pen in the second round vote of the French election by 61/39 – increasing Macron’s lead from Wednesday by 1.
  • ECB President Mario Draghi spoke of unity within Europe yesterday stating that the challenges faced today can only be address by countries in Europe acting together adding that the argument for acting together as a way to gain capacity has never been stronger.
  • GBP/USD pushed up towards the highs of its recent range closing the day around 1.2920 and the dollar also lost ground on the euro. EUR/USD opened 1.0883 and rallied by just under 1% to close at 1.0983 which happens to be its highest level since November 2016.
  • US President Donald Trump declared Obamacare ‘dead’ following the Republican healthcare bill was passed by the lower chamber of Congress – 217 in favour and 213 against.
  • In the UK local elections, the Conservative party gained control of five councils with Labour losing two in the first set of results fro the local and mayoral elections. UKIP lost all of its seats in Lincolnshire.
  • UK services PMI came in stronger than expected at 55.8 vs 54.6 yesterday whereas later in the afternoon we saw weaker data from Canada with trade balance figures missing expectations at -0.1B vs 0.3B expected.
  • In the US, unemployment claims beat expectations coming in at 238K vs 246k.
Overnight
  • New Zealand inflation expectations q/q came at 2.2% where it was 1.9% last time around.
  • GBP/NZD is trading 1.8753 whereas GBP/AUD is around 1.7494.
Today
  • All of the high impact data comes from the US and Canada today with Canadian employment data at 1.30pm and average hourly earnings m/m, unemployment rate and the ever-important non-farm payrolls from the US released at the same time.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1785 +0.15
GBP/USD 1.2936 +0.12
EUR/USD 1.0975 -0.06
AUD/USD 0.7397 -0.13

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
13:30 CAD Employment Change 20.0K 19.4K
13:30 CAD Unemployment Rate 6.7% 6.7%
13:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.3% 0.2%
13:30 USD Non-farm Employment Change 194K 98K
13:30 USD Unemployment Rate 4.6% 4.5%