Newsletter – 5th January 2017

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • UK data came in-line with expectations yesterday morning, with a UK Services PMI print of 54.2 for December and November Net Lending to Individuals at 4.9Bn.
  • The Pound had a pretty mixed day’s trading all in all. Making gains of +0.50% (152.77) and +0.25% (1.3545) against the Yen and US Dollar respectively, whilst making losses of -0.28% (1.1217) and -0.60% against the Euro and New Zealand Dollar respectively.
  • ING came out with some punchy GBP/USD forecasts yesterday. Suggesting an Early Brexit transition deal coupled with positive economic data could see the Pound climb to $1.4000 in the next three months, and as high as $1.5300 by the end of the year.
  • US Jobs data headlined yesterday afternoon with ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data showing that the US economy had created 250,000 jobs during December, exceeding the 191,000 expected. This figure is a precursor to the main event which is the Non-Farm Employment Change print due Friday afternoon.
Overnight

  • UK BRC Shop Price Index y/y -0.6% (-0.1% Previous)
  • Australia Trade Balance -0.63Bn (0.55Bn Exp)
  • German Retail Sales m/m 2.3% (1.0% Exp)
  • French Prelim CPI m/m 0.3% (0.3% Exp)
Today
  • Busy data calendar today, with Eurozone Inflation headlining this morning at 10am.
  • Raft of US and Canadian data releases from 1.30pm, with US Non-Farm Employment Change the key print at 1.30pm.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1233 +0.05
GBP/USD 1.3540 -0.06
EUR/USD 1.2053 -0.12
AUD/USD 0.7843 -0.23

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.10 EUR Eurozone Retail PMI 52.4
10.00 EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y 1.4% 1.5%
10.00 EUR Eurozone PPI m/m 0.3% 0.4%
13.30 CAD Employment Change 2.5K 79.5K
13.30 CAD Trade Balance -1.2Bn -1.5Bn
13.30 CAD Unemployment Rate 6.0% 5.9%
13.30 USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.3% 0.2%
13.30 USD Non-Farm Employment Change 188K 228K
13.30 USD Unemployment Rate 4.1% 4.1%
15.00 CAD Ivey PMI 62.2 63.0
15.00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 57.6 57.4