Newsletter – 4th March 2019

Morning Bulletin

Friday

  • UK Manufacturing PMI was in-line with expectations Friday morning with a reading of 52.0. According to a director from IHS Markit, who conduct the survey, British manufacturers have continued to stockpile both inputs and finished goods as the try to mitigate the potential disruptions that could arise from a no-deal Brexit.
  • UK Consumers continue to show resilience and are defying the expected Brexit nerves according to Friday’s borrowing figures. Despite the political backdrop, British households infact increased their borrowing and took our more mortgages in January. Net Lending to individuals came in at 4.8Bn (4.7Bn was expected) whilst mortgage approvals were hit 67,000 (63,000 was expected).
  • Sterling rates were incredibly choppy in FX space Friday, but overall the Pound ended the day down versus the US Dollar and the Euro.
  • Having opened around the Mid-1.3200’s, GBP/USD closed the day at the 1.3200 mark. Similarly GBP/EUR opened the day around the Mid-1.1600’s before closing closer to the 1.1615.
  • Eurozone Inflation crept up in February, with the year on year reading at 1.5%. That was in-line with expectations but up from 1.4% in January.
  • Eurozone Unemployment Rate 7.8% (7.9% Exp)
  • Canadian GDP dissapointed Friday afternoon with the economy shrinking by -0.1% in December. That was worse than the flat growth expected and all in all means the Canadian economy grew by +0.4% in the 4th quarter of 2019.
  • There was a shock decline in US manufacturing in February, with the ISM print hitting it’s lowest reading since the election of President Trump. It’s worth noting the reading of 54.2 is still massively in expansionary territory, but was down from 56.6 the previous month.
Overnight

  • Reuters have reported that Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar told his cabinet colleagues that a delay to the UK’s departure from the EU is ‘very likely’ to be until June.
  • According to the CBI, over the past three months British businesses endured their weakest period of growth in nearly six years due to the rising fears of a no-deal Brexit and increasing global trade barriers.
  • According to US Fed member Bostic he still expects to see one more rate hike this year, but as the data has been ‘pretty weak’ he is comfortable with being patient.
  • President Trump continued his recent spate of attacks on the Federal Reserve over the weekend, and in particular of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, the man he ironically handpicked for the position. Trump said the US Dollar was too strong and whilst he wants a strong dollar, he doesn’t want one that makes it prohibitive for the US to do business with other nations.
  • Australia Building Approvals m/m 2.5% (1.5% Exp)
  • Australia Company Operating Profits q/q 0.8% (3.1% Exp)
  • Spanish Unemployment Change 3,300 (5,000 Exp)
Today
  • Typically quiet Monday as far as economic data is concerned.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1677 +0.49
GBP/USD 1.3245 +0.31
EUR/USD 1.1341 -0.19
AUD/USD 0.7082 +0.07

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.30 EUR Sentix Investor Confidence -3.1 -3.7
09.30 GBP Construction PMI 50.5 50.6
10.00 EUR Eurozone PPI m/m 0.4% -0.8%
15.00 USD Construction Spending m/m 0.2% 0.8%