Newsletter – 4th July 2018

Morning Bulletin 


  • Sterling gained some ground on the US dollar and euro yesterday with GBP/EUR gaining a fifth of a percent and GBP/USD gained 0.35% during yesterday’s trading.
    • GBP/EUR opened at 1.1289 and traded a high of 1.1325 before closing at 1.1313.
    • GBP/USD opened at 1.3142 and traded a high of 1.3206 before closing at 1.3189.
  • The pound was propped up by rumours that Theresa May may adopt a soft Brexit stance blurring her red-lines on the customs plan however there would likely be opposition from Tory Brexiteers.
  • PM May has stated that she is looking forward to a full discussion with her cabinet on Brexit at Chequers on Friday. It is suggested that decisions could be made with regards to the “future partnership the UK is seeking with the EU and the content of the upcoming white paper”. Ministers are broadly being asked to choose between a Norway-style partnership and a much looser Canada-style trade deal.
  • In Germany the SPD rejected the agreement struck between Chancellor Merkel and CSU’s Seehofer on Monday for the establishment of  ‘closed transit centres’ at German borders.
  • Australian retail sales m/m came in slightly stronger than expected at 0.4% vs 0.3% but the trade balance came in weaker than expected at 0.83B vs 1.21B.
  • From China, Caixin services PMI came in at 53.9 vs 52.7 expected.
  • A quiet day expected with the United States celebrating Independence Day.
  • The only significant piece of data is from the UK at 9.30am in the form of services PMI which is expected to come in at 54.0.
Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1319 +0.05
GBP/USD 1.3174 -0.12
EUR/USD 1.1639 -0.16
AUD/USD 0.7382 -0.04


Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09:30 GBP Services PMI 54.0 54.0