Newsletter – 4th December 2017

Morning Bulletin

Friday

  • UK Manufacturing PMI was the key print Friday morning and it didn’t disappoint with the reading of 58.2 far exceeding the 56.6 expected; that was also the highest reading since December 2013. Particularly satisfying will be that Exports played a ‘big part’ in the expansion according to the report.
  • Not to be outdone the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI reading hit it’s highest level since April 2000, with the a reading of60.1 as the Eurozone economy continues to motor forward.
  • There was a raft of key Canadian data released Friday afternoon which impressed and underpinned a strong rally for the Canadian Dollar:
    • Employment Change 79.5K (10.2K Exp)
    • GDP m/m 0.2% (0.1% Exp)
    • Unemployment Rate 5.9% (6.2% Exp)
  • Just ahead of these figures GBP/CAD was trading a fraction under 1.7400, but ended the day down around 1.7150 as the Dollar rallied hard.
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI was the only key US print due Friday afternoon and it was largely in-line with expectations at 58.2.
  • News emerged Friday that President Trump’s former National Security Adviser, Michael Flynn, had pleaded guilty to providing false information to the FBI regarding contact made with the Russian Ambassador. ABC also reported that Flynn would be prepared to testify against Trump and say that he had directed him to make contact with the Russians.
  • According to EU Council President Tusk, the EU stands fully behind the Irish PM and Foreign Minister in their request for no hard-border post-Brexit, adding that the EU would reject any transitional deal or future trade talks if the border offer is unacceptable to Ireland.
Over The Weekend

  • According to an EU official the Brexit agreement is 85-90% there.
  • The US Senate has approved a tax bill that could overhaul the American tax system in a 51-49 vote, following a scramble by Republicans to make amendments into the early hours of Saturday morning that ultimately won over a number of their own skeptical party members.
  • Australia MI Inflation Gauge m/m 0.2% (0.3% Previous)
  • Australia Company Operating Profits q/q -0.2% (0.3% Exp)
  • Japan Consumer Confidence 44.9 (44.8 Exp)
  • Spanish Unemployment Change 7.3K (54.3K Exp)
Today
  • Very quiet on the data front today.
  • UK PM Theresa May is due to meet the EU’s Juncker and Tusk for Lunch today and of course to discuss Brexit progress.
  • UK Construction PMI is the key print this morning released at 9.30am.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1332 +0.06
GBP/USD 1.3447 -0.18
EUR/USD 1.1865 -0.24
AUD/USD 0.7605 -0.05

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.30 EUR Sentix Investor Confidence 32.2 34.0
09.30 GBP Construction PMI 51.2 50.8
10.00 EUR Eurozone PPI m/m 0.4% 0.6%
15.00 USD Factory Orders m/m -0.3% 1.4%