Newsletter – 4th April 2018

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • There was a real lack of data set for release yesterday, particularly after 9.30am.
  • There were a number of Manufacturing figures out of Europe early doors culminating in the overall Eurozone Manufacturing PMI reading of 56.6. This was in-line with forecasts, and was the slowest pace of growth in 8 months but nonetheless comfortably remained in expansionary territory (>50.0).
  • The UK equivalent was released at 9.30am and came in slightly better than expected at 55.1 for March.
  • Yesterday afternoon China formally notified the WTO of its intention to impose $611.5Million worth of retaliatory tariffs on $2.75Bn of US imports. The tariffs will be on goods including pork, nuts and ethanol and come in response to the US duties recently imposed on Aluminium and Steel.
  • New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Index -0.6% (-1.2% Previously)
Overnight

  • The Trade War between the United States and China looks set to rumble on, as overnight President Trump threatened to impose tariffs on more Chinese goods ranging from bakery ovens to ball bearings.
  • Speaking overnight, US Fed Member Lael Brainard said that the Fed’s current course of gradual rate hikes still remains appropriate, despite the fact that the recent tax cuts and government spending could lift inflation towards the Fed’s target.
  • UK BRC Shop Price Index y/y -1.0% (-0.8% Prior)
  • Australia Retail Sales m/m 0.6% (0.3% Exp)
  • Australia Building Approvals m/m -6.2% (-5.1% Exp)
  • China Caixin Services PMI 52.3 (54.5 Exp)
Today
  • First full data calendar of the week.
  • This morning UK Construction PMI and Eurozone Inflation data will be in focus.
  • US economic data dominates this afternoon.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1463 +0.03
GBP/USD 1.4077 +0.16
EUR/USD 1.2279 +0.08
AUD/USD 0.7686 +0.06

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.30 GBP Construction PMI 50.9 51.4
10.00 EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y 1.4% 1.1%
10.00 EUR Unemployment Rate 8.5% 8.6%
13.15 USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 208K 235K
14.45 USD Final Services PMI 54.3 54.1
15.00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 59.0 59.5
15.00 USD Factory Orders m/m 1.7% -1.4%
16.00 USD Fed Member Mester Speaks