Newsletter – 4 January 2017

Morning Bulletins


  • Impressive gains made by the US Dollar yesterday, perhaps a signal of how investors and traders see 2017 going for the greenback. The ICE US Dollar Index in fact jumped 1.1% at one stage yesterday to 103.31, its highest level in 15 years.
  • UK data continues to impress into 2017 despite the triggering of article 50 looming ever closer. Yesterday morning it was UK Manufacturing PMI that smashed expectations with a reading of 1 versus an expected 53.3, representing a 30 month high. Sterling did make solid gains in the immediate aftermath of this figure; however they were eroded by the afternoon.
  • The real standout number yesterday was German Inflation data, with their annual inflation rate soaring to 7% in December, more than double November’s print of 0.7%. Shortly afterwards there was also better than expected German Unemployment data, with the number of people unemployed down some 17,000 versus an expected 5,000.
  • Despite these encouraging data releases out of the Eurozone’s powerhouse, the single currency still flagged on the day struggling to make any gains across the board.
  • US Data continued to underpin Dollar strength yesterday afternoon:
    • ISM Manufacturing PMI 7 (53.7 Exp)
    • Construction Spending m/m 9% (0.5% Exp)
    • ISM Manufacturing Prices 5 (55.6 Exp)

Overnight & This Morning

  • Some further encouraging signs for the Spanish economy this morning, with the number of people unemployed dropping by 86,800 in December (drop of 44,200 was forecast).


  • Plenty of data due for release this morning, key amongst them UK Construction PMI at 9.30am closely followed by Eurozone CPI data at 10am (Yesterdays blowout German CPI print could be an indicator here). That however is about it, with an almost empty data calendar in the afternoon. US FOMC minutes from December meeting will be closely scrutinised in the evening.


Major Currency Pairs






% change on day
GBP/EUR 1.1776 +0.13%
GBP/USD 1.2277 +0.33%
EUR/USD 1.0425 +0.20%
AUD/USD 0.7273 +0.81%


Economic Calendar


Time Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.00 EUR Final Services PMI 53.1 53.1
09.30 GBP Construction PMI 52.6 52.8
09.30 GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m 4.9Bn 4.9Bn
09.30 GBP M4 Money Supply m/m 1.4% 1.1%
10.00 EUR Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate y/y 1.0% 0.6%
19.00 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes (Dec)