Newsletter – 3rd October 2018

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • Sterling lost ground across the board yesterday.
    • GBP/EUR opened at 1.1259 and traded a high of 1.1276, a low of 1.1219 and closed at 1.1240 representing a 0.17% decrease on the day.
    • GBP/USD opened at 1.3039 and traded a low of 1.2941 before closing at 1.2979.
  • Boris Johnson made his speech at the Conservative Party conference in Birmingham yesterday.
    • He took another swipe at PM Theresa May’s Brexit plan calling it a “cheat” that could lead to a boost for the far-right.
    • Of Philip Hammond’s prediction that Johnson would never be Prime Minister, he joked that it could be ‘the only Treasury forecast in some time to have a distinct ring of truth’.
    • He called for the government to scrap the Chequers plan that led to his resignation in July.
  • UK construction PMI came in at 52.1 – softer than the expected figure of 52.8.
Overnight
  • New Zealand GDT Price Index came in at -1.9% after producing a figure of -1.3% last time around.
  • Australian building approvals m/m came in far weaker than expected at -9.4% vs 1.0% estimated.
  • GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and GBP/JPY are trading at 1.8156, 1.9789 and 148.01, respectively.
Today
  • Theresa May will deliver her closing Conservative Party conference speech today. She is expected to tell party members that Britain’s post-Brexit future is ‘full of promise’ and that she and her party remain ‘on the side’ of hard-pressed families.
  • She is expected to announce that fuel duty will be frozen for the ninth consecutive year in the Budget and she will add that the country’s ‘best days lie ahead of us’.
  • In response to Boris Johnson speech on Tuesday, May said that Johnson put on a ‘good show’ but parts of his speech made the Prime Minister ‘cross’. She added ‘he wanted to tear up our guarantee to the people of Northern Ireland. Northern Ireland is part of the UK’.
  • UK services PMI came in at 53.9 vs 54.0 expected.
  • Later this afternoon we have data from the US with the highlight being ISM non-manufacturing PMI at 3pm.
Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1232 -0.07
GBP/USD 1.3003 +0.19
EUR/USD 1.1575 +0.24
AUD/USD 0.7160 -0.38

 

ime (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
13:15 USD ADP Non-farm Employment Change 185K 163K
15:00 USD ISM Non-manufacturing PMI 58.0 58.5
21:00 USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks