Newsletter – 3rd July 2017

Morning Bulletin

Friday

  • There was a solid end to the week’s trading for Sterling, having slumped during Asian hours and just into the open of European trading Friday morning, the Pound gradually clawed back those losses to close the week back around recent high’s against both the US Dollar and Euro.
  • There was key UK data released Friday morning, however it was largely in-line:
    • UK Current Account -16.9Bn (-17.2Bn Exp)
    • Final GDP q/q 0.2% as expected.
  • The Pound closed around 1.3014 and 1.1402 against the Dollar and Euro respectively.
  • Eurozone inflation came in at 1.3% y/y, which was better than the expected 1.2%, but still down from 1.4% previously.
  • Speaking Friday morning, ECB Member Lautenschlaeger maintained his more hawkish stance on the outlook for interest rates, stating that monetary policy should be normalised as soon as is possible and justifiable.
  • The instability and unrest in South African governance continues, with the SA Parliament saying they will hold a vote of no-confidence in President Zuma.
  • Data of note Friday afternoon:
    • Canada GDP m/m 0.2% as expected
    • US Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.1% as expected
    • US Personal Spending m/m 0.1% as expected
    • US Chicago PMI 65.7 (58.1 exp)
Over The Weekend

  • Speaking yesterday ECB member Weidmann suggested that the ECB wouldn’t suddenly stop their current stimulus program and that any move would be gradual.
  • Australian Building Approvals m/m -5.6% (-1.2% Exp)
  • China Caixin Manufacturing PMI 50.4 (49.9 Exp)
  • Spanish Manufacturing PMI 54.7 (55.6 Exp)
Today
  • Not a great deal of data due today, our only potential high impact number this morning will be UK Manufacturing PMI which is due at 9.30am.
  • This afternoon US ISM Manufacturing PMI will be in focus at 3pm.
  • Please be aware that today is a Canadian Bank Holiday.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1412 +0.18
GBP/USD 1.2991 -0.26
EUR/USD 1.1382 -0.31
AUD/USD 0.7660 -0.28

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.00 EUR Eurozone Final Manufacturing PMI 57.3 57.3
09.30 GBP Manufacturing PMI 56.4 56.7
10.00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate 9.3% 9.3%
14.45 USD Final Manufacturing PMI 52.1 52.1
15.00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 55.0 54.9
15.00 USD Construction Spending m/m 0.3% -1.4%
18.30 GBP BOE Member Haldane Speaks