Newsletter – 3rd January 2018

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • Trading kicked off yesterday with a raft of Manufacturing data out of Europe, with the overall Eurozone Manufacturing PMI print in-line with expectations at 60.6 for December; that was a fresh record high for the measure.
  • UK Manufacturing PMI was released shortly afterwards and at 56.3 it dissapointed, falling well short of the expected 58.0. However the reading still shows the sector is comfortably in expansionary territory.
  • Despite the disappointing data, yesterday proved a solid day for the Pound, with Sterling advancing in the afternoon, particularly against the struggling US Dollar. Having started the morning trading around 1.3530, GBP/USD hit a day’s high of 1.3599 before trickling back to close the day around 1.3590 and up +0.45% on the day.
  • Similarly, and despite being slightly down in the morning session, the Pound rallied to close the day up +0.30% against the Euro, closing the day at 1.1283.
  • UK Ministers have held informal talks about the possibility of the UK joining the Pacific trade group post-Brexit. The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) currently consists of 11 members including the likes of Australia, Japan and Mexico and did include the US prior to President Trump’s withdrawal. This could prove an audacious bid to kick-start UK exports post-Brexit.
  • It was confirmed yesterday morning that the Italian General Election will take place on the 4th March.
  • New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Index +2.2% (-3.9% Previous)

Overnight

  • Spanish Unemployment Change -61.5K (-58.7K Exp)
  • Swiss Manufacturing PMI 65.2 (64.6 Exp)
  • According to ECB member Nowotny, the ECB’s bond buying program could end later this year if the Eurozone economy remains strong.

Today

  • UK Construction PMI is the key print this morning with a reading of 52.8 expected.
  • US ISM Manufacturing PMI then headlines at 3pm this afternoon.
  • Worth noting today is a Japanese bank holiday.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1293 +0.22
GBP/USD 1.3596 +0.05
EUR/USD 1.2041 -0.14
AUD/USD 0.7832 +0.07

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
08.55 EUR German Unemployment Change -13K -18K
09.30 GBP Construction PMI 52.8 53.1
15.00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 58.1 58.2
15.00 USD Construction Spending m/m 0.6% 1.4%
19.00 USD US Fed FOMC Meeting Minutes