Newsletter – 3rd December 2018

Morning Bulletin

Friday

  • Eurozone Inflation eased to it’s lowest level in three months in November. The CPI Flash Estimate showed inflation was 2.0%, down from 2.2% last month and shy of the 2.1% expected.
  • The overall Eurozone Unemployment Rate remained at 8.1% in October. It had been forecast to fall to 8.0%.
  • Speaking Friday afternoon US Fed Member Kashkari warned fellow members against raising interest rates whilst job creation is strong and inflation is tame. Kashkari added that hiking rates too forcefully could risk causing a recession and that he believes rates are close to neutral.
  • Canadian GDP contracted a fraction in September on a m/m basis. The print of -0.1% falling shy of the +0.1% expected. However taken on the traditional quarterly measure the economy did still grow in the third quarter, albeit at a slower pace than Q1 and Q2 of 2018.
  • Speaking at the G20 summit European President Donald Tusk said Britain’s only options should Parliament vote down Theresa May’s Brexit deal would be to either leave with no-deal or to have no Brexit at all. Tusk said the current deal was the only one that would be offered and that the bloc was prepared for every scenario.
  • As a sideline to the G20 summit, the Leaders of the US, Canada and Mexico formally signed the new agreement which will replace NAFTA. The accord will be called the USMCA and it is estimated that it will rule over some $1tn of trade.
Over The Weekend

  • The US Dollar is on the back-foot in FX space this morning following a deal between the United States and China to suspend new trade tariffs which were due to come into effect on the 1st January. The agreement will halt the new tariffs for an initial 90 days to allow for further talks.
  • According to the Times, both Conservative Brexiteers and Remainers could join forces in order to vote down the PM’s Transitional deal.
  • Speaking over the weekend Labour MP Sir Keir Starmer said his Party would seek a vote of no confidence in the Government should PM May’s Brexit Deal fail to make it through Parliament. Starmer said that the PM losing a vote of this significance has to raise questions of confidence in the Government.
  • Australia Building Approvals m/m -1.5% (-1.4% Exp)
  • Japan Final Manufacturing PMI 52.2 (51.8 Exp)
  • Eurozone Final Manufacturing PMI 51.8 (51.5 Exp)
Today
  • UK and US Manufacturing data will be in focus today.
  • We also expect to hear from a number of US Fed Members and the Bank of England’s Andy Haldane later this afternoon.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1247 -0.14
GBP/USD 1.2783 +0.28
EUR/USD 1.1362 +0.39
AUD/USD 0.7381 +1.00

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.30 GBP Manufacturing PMI 51.6 51.1
11.30 USD Fed Member Clarida Speaks
13.00 USD Fed Member Quarles Speaks
14.15 USD Fed Member Williams Speaks
15.00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 57.5 57.7
15.30 USD Fed Member Brainard Speaks
17.30 GBP BOE Member Haldane Speaks