Newsletter – 3rd April 2017

Morning Bulletin

Friday

  • Sterling continued its post-Article 50 recovery on Friday, making solid gains against most of its major currency counterparts. Most notably the Pound actually closed the week at a one month high versus the Euro; hitting a high of 1.1786 at one stage.
  • The Pound seemed buoyed by a combination of solid economic data and Brexit-related news. The economic data included 2016 4th quarter GDP in-line with expectations at 0.7% and a much better than expected Current Account deficit of –12.1Bn (-16.3Bn Exp). Whilst on the Brexit front it was the suggestion that the EU would potentially be open to trade negotiations before agreeing a final deal for Brexit itself.
  • There was also a shock drop in Eurozone Inflation reported Friday morning. Expecting y/y Inflation of 1.8%, the actual reading was 1.5%, down from a previous 2.0%. Perhaps the ECB have been spot on with their previous assessments surrounding inflation.
  • There has been plenty of chatter from US FOMC members of late and Friday was no different, however this time their views appeared slightly mixed:
    • Fed Member Dudley said a couple of more rate hikes this year seemed reasonable.
    • In Contrast, Kashkari said there was no reason to rush or hurry along rate rises.
    • Similarly, Bullard said its ok to raise rates a little, however stated this was not an environment that screamed of a need for the Fed to hike.
  • Some of Friday’s other data of note:
    • Canadian GDP m/m 0.6% (0.3% Exp)
    • US Personal Spending m/m 0.1% (0.2% Exp)
    • German Retail Sales m/m 1.8% (0.7% Exp)

Over The Weekend

  • Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI 51.2 (51.8 Exp)
  • Australian Retail Sales m/m -0.1% (0.3% Exp)
  • Australian Building Approvals m/m 8.3% (-1.4% Exp)
  • Spanish Manufacturing PMI 53.9 (54.6 Exp)

 

Today

  • There is a decent amount of data due for release today however only a handful would be considered medium to high impact.
  • Key this morning will be UK Manufacturing PMI data due at 9.30am with a reading of 55.1 expected. We then wait until 3pm for the next fix of high impact data and that comes in the form of US Manufacturing PMI.

Worth noting today and tomorrow are Chinese Bank Holidays.

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1746 -0.09
GBP/USD 1.2532 -0.11
EUR/USD 1.0667 +0.09
AUD/USD 0.7599 -0.37

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.30 GBP Manufacturing PMI 55.1 54.6
10.00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate 9.5% 9.6%
15.00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 57.2 57.7
15.30 CAD BOC Business Outlook Survey
15.30 USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
20.00 USD FOMC Member Harker Speaks