Newsletter – 31st May 2018

Morning Bulletin


  • GBP/EUR came off by 0.83% yesterday after opening at 1.1480 and closing 1.1385.
  • German retail sales came in far better than expected at 2.3% vs 0.5% expected and German preliminary CPI m/m also came in better than expected 0.5% vs 0.3%.
  • Spanish flash CPI y/y came in at 2.0% vs 1.7%.
  • Sterling gained on the US dollar by just over one quarter of a percent after opening at 1.3249 and closing 1.3284.
  • The Canadian dollar rose broadly following a hawkish Bank of Canada statement yesterday whereby the Bank of Canada held rates at 1.25% but teed up markets for July hike.
  • GBP/CAD fell to its lowest level since January briefly trading a low of 1.7054.
  • Canadian current account data came in at -19.5B vs -18.1B expected and RMPI m/m came in at 0.7% vs 2.1% expected.
  • Preliminary GDP q/q from the US came in at 2.2% vs 2.3%. ADP non-farm employment change came in weaker than expected at 178K vs 191K expected.
  • Chinese manufacturing PMI came in stronger than expected at 51.9 vs 51.4. 
  • Non-manufacturing PMI from China came in at 54.9 which was the figure expected.
  • Australian private capital expenditure q/q came in weaker than expected at 0.4% vs 0.8%.
  • GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and GBP/JPY are currently trading at 1.7585, 1.9061 and 145.18.
  • UK net lending to individuals m/m came in at 5.7B vs 5.2B.
  • We expect Eurozone CPI flash estimate y/y and core CPI flash estimate y/y with estimated figures of 1.6% and 1.0%, respectively.
  • We expect Canadian GDP m/m at 1.30pm alongside US personal spending m/m and unemployment claims.
  • Following that we have Chicago PMI at 2.45pm.
Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1383 -0.02
GBP/USD 1.3334 +0.38
EUR/USD 1.1714 +0.46
AUD/USD 0.7585 +0.15


Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
10:00 EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y 1.6% 1.2%
10:00 EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y 1.0% 0.7%
13:30 CAD GDP m/m 0.2% 0.4%
13:30 USD Personal Spending m/m 0.4% 0.4%
13:30 USD Unemployment Claims 228K 234K
14:45 USD Chicago PMI 58.2 57.6