Newsletter – 31st July 2018

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • Monday was relatively uneventful and that was demonstrated in rather subdued trading.
    • GBP/EUR opened at 1.1228 and drifted up to a high of 1.1259 before eventually closing lower on the day at 1.1217.
    • Sterling gained a very modest amount of ground on the US dollar yesterday after opening at 1.3114 and closing at 1.3130.
    • The euro gained 0.43% on the US dollar yesterday closing at 1.1705 after opening at 1.1655.
  • Spanish Flash CPI y/y came in at 2.2% which was slightly short of the expected figure (2.3%).
  • UK net lending to individuals came in at 5.4B vs 5.3B expected.
  • Following hostile warnings traded between Iran and the US earlier this month, US President Donald Trump has offered to meet Iran’s leaders with ‘no preconditions’ and ‘any time they want’. However US secretary of state Mike Pompeo appeared to contradict Trump with a list of preconditions that would have to be met first. Iran leader Rouhani’s adviser Hamid Aboutalebi then also set his own conditions for any meeting with Trump.
  • The British car industry yesterday warned that a ‘no-deal’ Brexit is not an option. Chief executive of Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) added that car makers were increasingly concerned about the lack of clarity around the manner of Britain’s departure from the EU (Reuters).
Overnight
  • Chinese non-manufacturing PMI came in at 54.0 vs 55.0, manufacturing PMI came in as expected at 51.2.
  • New Zealand ANZ business confidence came in at -44.9 and Australian building approvals m/m came in at 6.4% vs 1.1% expected.
  • The Bank of Japan policy rate was held at -0.10%.
Today
  • German retail sales m/m came in as expected at 1.2%.
  • Spanish flash GDP q.q came in slightly weaker than anticipated at 0.6% vs 0.7% expected.
  • European CPI flash estimate y/y, core CPI flash estimate and preliminary flash GDP q/q came in at 2.1%, 1.1% and 0.3%, respectively.
  • This afternoon we have employment data from the US and GDP data from Canada at 1.30pm.
  • We then have Chicago PMI at 2.45pm and CB consumer confidence at 3pm.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1216 -0.01
GBP/USD 1.3152 +0.18
EUR/USD 1.1726 +0.18
AUD/USD 0.7420 +0.19

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
13:30 CAD GDP m/m 0.3% 0.1%
13:30 CAD RMPI m/m 2.7% 3.86
13:30 USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.1% 0.2%
13:30 USD Employment Cost Index q/q 0.7% 0.8%
13:30 USD Personal Spending m/m 0.4% 0.2%
14:45 USD Chicago PMI 61.9 64.1
15:00 USD CB Consumer Confidence 126.5 126.4