Newsletter – 31st January 2019

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • The EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier yesterday said that the Irish backstop is ‘part and parcel’ on the UK’s brexit deal and will not be renegotiated. He added that it was ‘realistic solution’ to preventing a hard border. The backstop issue is one of the reasons that Theresa May’s deal was voted down in parliament.
  • It is reported that PM May wants to discuss alternative solutions to the backstop that she wanted to discuss with EU leaders which include a ‘trusted trader’ scheme to avoid physical checks on the border, ‘mutual recognition’ of rules within the EU and ‘technological’ solutions.
  • Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn says he told Theresa May not to bring no deal back to Parliament after finally meeting to discuss Brexit. He said that the meeting with the prime minister was a ‘serious’ one and that May had ‘listened’.
  • GBP/EUR opened at 1.1426, traded a high of 1.1474, a low of 1.1412 and closed at 1.1423 yesterday representing a 0.06% decrease on the day.
  • GBP/USD opened at 1.3064, traded a high of 1.3145, a low of 1.3054 and closed at 1.3115 yesterday – an increase of 0.39%.
  • ADP non-farm employment change came in better than expected at 213K vs 180K expected.
  • The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at <2.50%.
  • In the FOMC press conference, the US central bank discarded pledges of ‘further gradual increases in interest rates committing to patience before any further moves.
Overnight
  • Chinese manufacturing PMI came as expected at 49.5.
  • GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and GBP/JPY are currently trading 1.8055 (-0.23%), 1.9001 (-0.07%) and 142.70 (-0.21%), respectively.
Today
  • At 10am we preliminary flash GDP q/q data from the Eurozone.
  • Canadian GDP m/m is expected at 1.30pm along with RMPI m/m and employment cost index q/q.
  • Chicago PMI is expected at 2.45pm.
Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1423 +0.00
GBP/USD 1.3121 +0.04
EUR/USD 1.1487 +0.07
AUD/USD 0.7269 +0.32

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
10:00 EUR Prelim Flash GDP q/q 0.2% 0.2%
13:30 CAD GDP m/m -0.1% 0.3%
13:30 CAD RMPI m/m 3.9% -11.7%
13:30 USD Employment Cost Index q/q 0.8% 0.8%
14:45 USD Chicago PMI 61.5 65.4
17:30 CAD Gov Council Member Wilkins Speaks