Newsletter – 31st January 2018

Morning Bulletin


  • Sterling performed well yesterday gaining ground on both the euro and the US dollar.
  • GBP/EUR opened at 1.1360 and traded a daily low of 1.1323 before rallying to close up 0.38% on the day at 1.1404
  • GBP/USD followed a similar pattern opening at 1.4073, trading a low of 1.3979 before closing at 1.4143 representing a 0.49% increase on the day.
  • UK net lending to individuals m/m came in at 5.2B vs 4.8B.
  • Eurozone preliminary flash GDP q/q came in as expected at 0.6% and CB consumer confidence from the US came in better than expected at 125.4 vs 123.2.
  • US President has used the strong performance of the US economy to claim that there has never been a better time to start living the ‘American dream’.
  • UK PM Theresa May pledged to create a ‘golden era’ of UK-China relations yesterday before her visit to China. She also said that she was not a ‘quitter’ in response to question raised about her future.


  • Australian CPI q/q came in every so slightly softer than expected overnight at 0.6% vs 0.7%. Trimmed mean CPI q/q came in at 0.4% vs 0.5% expected.
  • Chinese non-manufacturing PMI and manufacturing PMI came in at 55.3 and 51.3, respectively.


  • This morning we have seen German retail sales m/m fall short of expectations coming in at -1.9% vs -0.3% and Spanish CPI y/y come in weaker than expected at 0.5% vs 0.9%.
  • At 10am we have CPI flash estimate y/y from the Eurozone.
  • This afternoon we expect ASP non-farm employment change from the US and GDP m/m from Canada.
  • This evening the FOMC statement will be released along with the Fed rate which is expected to remain at <1.50%.
Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1347 -0.50
GBP/USD 1.4133 -0.07
EUR/USD 1.2452 +0.40
AUD/USD 0.8096 +0.20


Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
10:00 EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y 1.3% 1.4%
10:00 EUR Core CPI Flash estimate y/y 1.0% 0.9%
13:15 USD ADP Non-farm employment change 186K 250K
13:30 CAD GDP m/m 0.4% 0.0%
13:30 CAD RMPI m/m -2.2% 5.5%
13:30 USD Employment Cost Index q/q 0.6% 0.7%
14:45 USD Chicago PMI 64.2 67.6
15:00 USD Pending Home Sales m/m 0.5% 0.2%
19:00 USD FOMC Statement
19:00 USD FOMC Federal Funds Rate <1.50% <1.50%