Newsletter – 30th October 2017

Morning Bulletin

Friday

  • There was very little economic data released Friday with the higher impact prints coming in the afternoon session out of the US.
  • The US Dollar was one of Friday’s best performers, bolstered by a much better than expected GDP print which caught markets by surprise. Expecting Q3 annualized growth of +2.6%, the actual print of +3.0% coupled with the +3.1% upward revision to the Q2 print meant that the US economy had grown by 3.0% in two consecutive quarters for the first time since 2014.
  • This print was soon followed by solid US Consumer Sentiment data. The survey of American consumers produced a reading of 100.7, a smidge short of the 100.8 expected, but this was still a 13-year high.
  • According to German newspaper reports ECB member’s Lautenshlaeger, Knot and Weidmann all voted against the decision to keep the asset purchase programme (APP) open-ended.
  • Speaking Friday ECB Member Villeroy said the decision to reduce the APP was justified by the central bank’s confidence that inflation will continue to rise steadily towards their target level.
  • On Friday it looked very much like Spain is set for a civil war following Catalonia’s declaration of independence which was closely followed by the Spanish Governments decision to implement article 155 which gives them authority to impose the rule of law in Catalonia.
  • The Russian Central Bank cut their benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 8.25%.
Over The Weekend

  • Following the Spanish Government’s implementation of Article 155, they subsequently went on to dismiss and dissolve the entirety of the Catalan government and its regional parliament.
  • According to a NBC-Wall Street Journal poll, US President Trump’s job approval rating has hit a new low of 38%, with 58% saying they disapproved of his presidency.
  • Japan Retail Sales y/y 2.2% (2.3% Exp)
  • German Retail Sales m/m 0.5% (0.5% Exp)
  • Spanish Flash CPI y/y 1.6% (1.7% Exp)
  • Spanish Flash GDP q/q 0.8% as expected
Today
  • UK Net Lending to Individuals is the only print of any note remaining this morning.
  • This afternoon we look to the US for a couple of medium impact numbers.
Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1315 +0.08
GBP/USD 1.3162 +0.29
EUR/USD 1.1631 +0.23
AUD/USD 0.7682 +0.13

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.30 GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m 5.5Bn 5.6Bn
09.30 GBP M4 Money Supply m/m 0.7% 0.9%
12.30 USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.1% 0.1%
12.30 USD Personal Spending m/m 0.8% 0.1%