Newsletter – 30th November 2018

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • Sterling was one of the worst performers in FX space yesterday as Brexit woes continue to weigh heavily on the Pound. The threat of Parliament voting down Theresa May’s deal coupled with the warnings of the damage a no-deal Brexit could do to the UK economy continued to spook markets and investors.
  • Mrs May endured her latest grilling yesterday morning being questioned by the Commons liaison committee on her Brexit Deal and what would happen in the event that MP’s voted it down. Labour MP Yvette Cooper in particular pushed the PM on the issue, suggesting that having known Mrs May for over 20 years that she didn’t believe the PM would was the kind of person who would simply allow the UK to crash out of the EU with no deal.
  • The Pound closed the day down -0.46% and -0.41% against the Euro and Dollar respectively at 1.1229 and 1.2770.
  • The economic data out of the UK yesterday morning was actually pretty positive:
    • Net Lending to Individuals m/m 5.0Bn (4.5Bn Exp)
    • M4 Money Supply m/m 0.7% (0.3% Exp)
    • Mortgage Approvals 67K (65K Exp)
  • There were a number of US economic data releases yesterday afternoon:
    • Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.1% (0.2% Exp)
    • Personal Spending m/m 0.6% (0.4% Exp)
    • Personal Income m/m 0.5% (0.4% Exp)
    • Unemployment Claims 234K (221K Exp)
  • Ahead of a meeting with Chinese President Xi at the G20 summit in Argentina, US President Donald Trump said he thinks they are very close to agreeing a deal with China on trade but that he is unsure it’s what he wants to do now that the US has Billions of Dollars coming into the coffers in the form of tariffs and taxes.
Overnight

  • The US Dollar weakened in FX space yesterday evening following the release of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes. The Fed pointed to another 0.25% hike in their benchmark rate next month, however in an apparent U-Turn they have hinted that future post-meeting statements could see reference to ‘further gradual increases’ removed or altered, with a couple of members suggesting rates could now be nearing a neutral level.
  • Japan Tokyo Core CPI y/y 1.0% (1.1% Exp)
  • Japan Unemployment Rate 2.4% (2.3% Exp)
  • UK GfK Consumer Sentiment -13 (-11 Exp)
  • China Manufacturing PMI 50.0 (50.2 Exp)
  • China Non-Manufacturing PMI 53.4 (53.8 Exp)
Today
  • Eurozone Inflation will be the key print this morning at 10am.
  • This Afternoon Canadian GDP will be in focus.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1240 +0.16
GBP/USD 1.2798 +0.12
EUR/USD 1.1386 -0.06
AUD/USD 0.7312 -0.09

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
10.00 EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y 2.1% 2.2%
10.00 EUR Italian Prelim CPI m/m -0.3% 0.0%
10.00 EUR Unemployment Rate 8.0% 8.1%
13.30 CAD GDP m/m 0.1% 0.1%
13.30 CAD RMPI m/m -5.2% -0.9%
14.00 USD Fed Member Williams Speaks
14.45 USD Chicago PMI 58.6 58.4