Newsletter – 30th November 2017

Morning Bulletin

Yesterday

  • Unsurprisingly Brexit news dominated yesterday’s trading where the Pound was concerned. As touched upon in yesterday morning’s update the Pound had made gains upwards of 1% against both the Dollar and the Euro following reports that the UK and EU were close to agreement on a potential ‘Divorce Bill’ settlement figure.
  • The Pound managed to consolidate those gains during the day’s trading and in fact extended them into the afternoon. By the end of the day the Pound was trading a fresh 8-week high of 1.3448 against the Dollar, and traded as high as 1.1338 against the Euro.
  • Speaking in the morning Bank of England Dep Gov Cunliffe stayed very much on message where Brexit and the BOE are concerned, warning that there was huge uncertainty about how the split could affect different parts of the UK economy. He also explained his decision for not supporting a rate hike in the November meeting, stating he would like to see more evidence of domestic cost pressures.
  • UK Net Lending to Individuals m/m 4.8Bn (4.3Bn Exp)
  • UK M4 Money Supply m/m 0.6% (0.3% Exp)
  • The Pound did have a brief wobble during yesterday’s trading as the EU parliament’s Brexit negotiator suggested talks were not advancing quickly enough on the EU top courts role on Citizens rights.
  • US GDP was the key print yesterday afternoon and economic growth was raised to 3.3% in the third quarter, up from 3.0% in Q2.
  • US Pending Home Sales m/m 3.5% (1.1% Exp)
Overnight

  • The Pound has picked up where it left off yesterday making gains this morning as it is now being reported (The Times) that the UK is nearing a deal with the EU on the Irish Border issue.
  • According to US Fed Member Williams inflation will pick up next year and he believes 4 rate hikes could be necessary in 2018.
  • New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence -39.3 (-10.1 Previous)
  • UK GfK Consumer Confidence -12 (-9 Exp)
  • Australia Private Capital Expenditure q/q 1.0% (1.1% Exp)
  • Australia Building Approvals m/m +0.9% (-0.9% Exp)
  • China Manufacturing PMI 51.8 (51.5 Exp)
  • German Retail Sales m/m -1.2% (0.3% Exp)
Today
  • Eurozone CPI will be in focus this morning, with year-on-year inflation expected to reach 1.6%.
  • US Unemployment Claims is the key print this afternoon.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1353 +0.33
GBP/USD 1.3470 +0.48
EUR/USD 1.1855 +0.07
AUD/USD 0.7570 +0.02

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.00 EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate 11.1% 11.1%
10.00 EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y 1.6% 1.4%
10.00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate 8.9% 8.9%
13.30 CAD Current Account -16.3Bn
13.30 USD Unemployment Claims 241K 239K
13.30 USD Personal Spending m/m 0.2% 1.0%
13.30 USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.2% 0.1%
14.45 USD Chicago PMI 62.2 66.2
18.00 USD Fed Member Kaplan Speaks